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View Diary: PPP's new Alaska poll has positive news for Dem Sen. Mark Begich (28 comments)

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  •  Yeah, but those areas are *really* rural (4+ / 0-)

    I have always been curious about the seeming consistent inaccuracy in AK polls.  over the last 11 years that I have been paying attention to them, they seem to always favor the D's.  

    I have assumed that this is an over sampling of Anchorage and Juneau, and an undersampling of what I should call 'medium' (not rural) locations, like Wasilla, Palmer (Although these are now huge places), Homer, Kodiak etc.  

    The bush does tend to be blue, and I would hope Begich would do well there as it looks like some of his bigger battles/wins in the Senate have been on behalf of Alaska Natives.  

    •  You need to look at election returns (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly

      Your opinion does not seem to be based on any real local knowledge of Alaskan politics.

      Juneau, especially downtown Juneau, votes Democratic.

      Anchorage & Fairbanks are very divided, and the latest Repuke reapportionment gerrymandered Dem voters into fewer districts so Rs could pack the state senate, which had been divided 10-10 and was run by a coalition of Dems + practical Rs, some of whom were redistricted out of office to ensure that Big Oil would have enough senate votes to cut oil taxes.

      Medium sized towns tend to vote R because of oil, logging, and mining interests in those districts.  The bush, and especially Alaska Native voters, tend to vote D, but their D legislators will caucus in the legislature with Rs.  

      The bush vote pushed Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign because Joe Miller was clearly anti-Native American, and the tribal corporations, who had worked with Lisa on land settlement and other legislation, were desperate to ensure that Miller didn't win.

      Many Alaska Dems are upset with Mark because he abandoned many of his campaign promises once elected, and now seems to be the big defender of the oil industry that will surely campaign against him.

      His attitude seems to be that Ds will have to support him (not me, I'm hoping Scott McMaster will primary him so we have a choice between a real Democrat and a DINO).

      "Everybody wants to go to Heaven but nobody wants to die" --- Albert King

      by HarpboyAK on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 03:52:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see where you're disagreeing with me (0+ / 0-)

        I said that Juneau voted D, and that Anchorage is more D than the rest of the state taken as a whole.  I was just theorizing that polls tend to over sample the more liberal sections of Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau, while under sampling the medium sized towns which you state tend to vote R.  I couldn't know this without looking at the polls, not election results, but polls consistently overestimate D performance in Alaska, they have ever since I started following them in 2002.  Although, a last second lurch to the right may be a more accurate theory.

        It's true that the state legislature can be more balanced, but that's due to exceptional candidates winning the ground game in tiny districts.  

        And any primary against Begich wouldn't even be close.  Considering the fact that Begich is a long shot to win re-election, I can't imagine the value in trying to have another D candidate.    

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