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View Diary: Looking at the Senate picture in 2014 ... and 2016 (160 comments)

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  •  Assuming there is blowback. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    akmk, VirginiaBlue, llywrch

    You have to completely ignore the polling on the AWB to figure that there would be a huge blowback against Dems on this. Anyone who bought into the Democrats are gungrabbers meme stopped voting Democrat a long time ago.

    I've never seen pre-mature capitulation work. I think pursuing the AWB is worth it simply because you're probably not going to get registration and background checks without trading something for them in this congress.  But I'm sure RKBA folks already know that and want the whole package of gun reforms to quietly go away, starting with AWB getting tossed out as "unrealistic".

    •  Some don't look at polls... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      conniptionfit

      they look to their guts based on what happened between 1980-2005.  Run from any fight, at any chance, if there is the slightest chance you may lose.

      The real question is when do folks figure out the stupidity of this strategy.

      "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - Melissa Harris Perry

      by justmy2 on Mon Feb 11, 2013 at 09:55:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I suspect RKBA folks are looking at the polls (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        alain2112

        and are just concern trolling as a way of fighting anti-gun sentiment at DK and depress activism against an AWB.

        •  this kind of comment (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          annieli

          is exactly what this debate doesn't need.  quit accusing people who disagree with of nefarious intent.  it's rather emblematic of the bigger picture gun debate; keep it up and you will achieve nothing but alienating those who could otherwise be allies.  and make a bad impression, of course.


          anyhoo, polls, schmolls.

          a)  they rarely, if ever, define "assault weapons ban," so who knows what people think they are supporting.

          b) national polls mean fuck all when looking at state-level campaigns. they're influenced by blue state participants and red state participants, whereas a senatorial campaign in MT is vulnerable on guns just as sure the sun will set in the west tonight.  no matter how much you dislike such a fact, there it is.

          Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

          by Cedwyn on Mon Feb 11, 2013 at 11:15:23 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I believe this debate requires honesty (0+ / 0-)

            And when RKBA is making an obviously coordinated attempt to depress AWB, background check, and registration support, but then pretends to be an "ally" of gun reform (totally devoid of reforms) I call b.s. It's no secret that the only serious gun reforms RKBA wants are no reforms, so why even pretend to looking out for the Democratic Party's chances in 2014 by suggesting they nix the AWB when your primary concern is that no restrictions pass? Be honest.

            a) I think when commercials show an AR-15, explain that it shoots 45 rounds a minute, and call it an Assault Weapon most people will agree with that definition. If you want chime in and say that all semi-auto's shoot 45 rounds a minute I don't think that will do much to support your case.

            b) The damage is already done and there is already an AWB bill out there. Republicans are already going to call every Dem a gungrabber in 2014. They've already cut the commercials, so why run away from the fight now and get nothing from it?

            •  i have not seen one single person (0+ / 0-)

              "attempt to depress" strengthening background checks.

              and i'd bet dollars to doughnuts that "attempt to depress AWB" is any effort to point out the realities of the situation.  

              there are uphill battles, and then there's pickett's charge.  look at the graphics in this diary.

              Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

              by Cedwyn on Mon Feb 11, 2013 at 01:03:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You've now seen one single person (0+ / 0-)

                You just needed to look for one. Hasn't even fallen off the recent diaries list yet.

                Again, your view of reality read like the handwringing of someone worries that an AWB could potentially pass, not that we'd lose seats over it. Considering an AWB is more popular than Obama in conservative Texas and Independent New Hampshire we may even gain seats. This isn't 1994 and guns are concentrated into fewer and fewer hands, meaning fewer voters care about them.

                We'd need to political capital to save Social Security that's currently solvent for another 20 years? lol. Try selling that to someone who has bought into the Republican hype. Like I said, if the AWB doesn't pass it will be used to pass something else. The only reason anyone would want to ditch it right now is if they didn't want to see Dems have that bargaining chip in and attempt to achieve stronger reforms. And my guess is that person would be someone who was opposed to registration and background checks. Know anybody like that?

                “Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men experience it as a whole. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.” - Helen Keller

                by Jason Hackman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 at 01:57:42 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  okay, one, one who opposes it (0+ / 0-)

                  because he believes it will require gun registration.

                  he's against Y, which is part of X, so he's against X. see how that works?

                  anyhoo...enough with the personal commentary and ascribing beliefs and motives to people you don't know from shinola.  it's quite puerile.  

                  as to your first link, again:

                  NATIONAL POLLING MEANS BUPKIS IN STATE RACES.

                  the senate isn't won nationally, dig?  nobody in MT cares what people in MA think, okay?

                  as to your texas link, again:

                  THE POLL DOESN"T DEFINE "ASSAULT WEAPON."

                  so who knows what the whopping 500 texans who responded thought they were supporting in expressing the opinion of favoring a gun ban.

                  please address those two points if you're going to reply
                  .

                  and beyond that, that texas poll does you no favors:

                  Texas voters do like the NRA. 46% view it favorably to 40% with an unfavorable opinion. 47% of voters support its proposal to put armed police officers in every school in the country, to 39% who oppose it. Even 41% of Democrats support that initiative.

                  Overall on the issue of guns Texans say they trust the NRA over President Obama by a 47/43 margin.

                  And despite all of that 49% of Texas voters support an assault weapons ban to just 41% opposed to it. Most Democrats support it, independents favor it by a 53/34 margin, and even among Republicans 23% support it.

                  so much for whatever you thought your point about texas was; support for an AWB, whatever AW means, doesn't even break 50% and isn't but two points higher than putting armed guards in every damn school. yeah, that's gonna happen...

                  Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

                  by Cedwyn on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:35:04 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly. AWB may supported by more folks than one (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jason Hackman

      thinks.  It's folly to think anyone clinging to their assault weapons would vote for anyone other than a right-wing Republican anyway.

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