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View Diary: Forward on Climate: The Ringwraiths of Despair (57 comments)

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  •  If not cactus (0+ / 0-)

    then tumbleweeds with the worse case scenario. I phrased it thus because I recall seeing model charts that predicted a hundred days of temperature in the 90s for that region. Keep in mind that aquifers are running dry.

    As far as your prediction for 2025-2030 versus 2020 the unprecedented shrinkage of summer 2012 has got some people saying 2017+/-3.

    I myself stand by the following:

    The Arctic ocean will be ice free for a few days with the exception of a thin band of ice immediately north of Canada and Greenland by the year 2020.

    And yes, we might have hundreds of millions dying from famine even under "best case" scenarios.

    •  Not too long ago I personally was almost sure..... (0+ / 0-)

      It'd be 2016-17 for real. Having looked at the patterns on various graphs, though, it now seems to be unlikely; doesn't mean it's totally impossible, IMO, but OTOH, TBH, it would really take a HELL of a bad roll of the proverbial dice for the first ice free days to come quite THAT early.

      And in fact, if you look at the SSM/I graphs, the ice made a decent recovery and we're now actually above EVERY year since 2007 as of Thurs.

      •  I'm not a 2016-2017 man myself but (0+ / 0-)

        Regardless of the fact that the ice cap has made a recovery this winter in extent it has been consistently losing thickness. Thickness is the most important variable.

        Also, the ocean current going through the Fram Strait is set up for more flushing of multi-year ice (what's left of it) come this summer.

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