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  •  Based on Phil Plait's comments ... (6+ / 0-)
    As things stand, right now the JPL website lists the next close pass as February 2020, but we don’t know the orbit well enough at this moment to know how close that pass will be. As things stand, the odds of an impact even then are very, very low (like, 1 in 100,000 — less than your odds of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime). We can’t technically rule it out just yet because, again, the orbit isn’t known well enough to look that far into the future. Of course, astronomers are observing the asteroid right now, and will continue to do so. No doubt we’ll have better orbital information pretty soon.
    Once it passes, we will know more precisely what to expect. Don't lose any sleep over it.


    Predicting is hard...especially the future. ~ Y. Berra

    by jim in IA on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 08:15:12 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Phil writes 'Bad Astronomy' for Slate Mag. (6+ / 0-)


      Predicting is hard...especially the future. ~ Y. Berra

      by jim in IA on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 08:19:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for that. (n/t) (4+ / 0-)

      -5.13,-5.64; If you gave [Jerry Falwell] an enema, you could bury him in a matchbox. -- Christopher Hitchens

      by gizmo59 on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 08:20:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, on that subject, when is the next (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gizmo59, Steveningen, jim in IA

      nearby lightning strike expected? (And, are my odds better with rubber galoshes? Or Keds, to run faster and jump higher?)

      "The opposite of war isn't peace, it's CREATION." _ Jonathan Larson, RENT -9.62, -9.13

      by BeninSC on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 08:47:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, that was P. F. Flyers. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeninSC, Steveningen, jim in IA

        I date the start of my cynicism to the day I first got a pair of those.  Back in elementary school I was awful at athletics.  I couldn't run fast and I was no good at sports.  Seeing the P. F. Flyers commercial on TV, I thought it would be my salvation!  It would be like Mercury's wings on my feet!  And then I would have lots of friends because my sneakers would make me good at sports!

        I had to wheedle my mother for a pair for what seemed like months.  My family was very tight with money, and my mother was always more inclined to pay less for an off-brand that would do the same thing as the name brand.  But she finally relented, and I got my P. F. Flyers.

        I can't tell you how disappointed I was.  I could run no faster than I could the day before!  They lied to me!

        -5.13,-5.64; If you gave [Jerry Falwell] an enema, you could bury him in a matchbox. -- Christopher Hitchens

        by gizmo59 on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 09:00:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, I read Atlas Shrugged. They couldn't have lied (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gizmo59, Steveningen, jim in IA

          to you, it had to have been a market anomaly!

          (I don't ever recall running faster, either! I do recall being lied to. But it was more rare in those days than in the days of Citizens United!)

          "The opposite of war isn't peace, it's CREATION." _ Jonathan Larson, RENT -9.62, -9.13

          by BeninSC on Sun Feb 10, 2013 at 09:21:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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