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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/13 (306 comments)

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  •  New study of the likely voter model (7+ / 0-)
    The upshot of McInturff’s findings:  A likely voter model based solely on self-described interest in the election failed to capture the true interest level and the strength of Democratic turnout efforts among voters age 18-29 and non-whites, especially Latinos. These groups are core Democratic groups, heavily dependent on cellphones and thus tougher to poll.

    “Likely voter models have generally been accurate in the past, but the sheer intensity of the scope and reach of today’s presidential campaigns” through advertising and voter contact “is unlike anything witnessed before,” McInturff finds:

    . . . .

    The base of voters who qualify for a likely voter model in a presidential year should be roughly 80 percent of registered voters; this 80 percent should not be further refined through additional filters.

    http://cookpolitical.com/...

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 06:51:22 AM PST

    •  It's as if the entire concept of math is alien (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Among the "unlikely" or "less likely" voters in any poll, many do in fact vote in the end, while some amount of "likely" voters do not.

      In 2012, Obama did much better among registered/less-likely voters, so he benefitted when some of them voted; and, he did less well against declared likely voters, so he also rleatively benefited by some of them not voting.  Overall, this leads to a point or two or three benefitting Democrats.

      As long as likely voter polls eliminate, rather than scale, less likely respondents, they will skew toward the Republicans (if the current state of the nation remains about the same).

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 11:59:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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