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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/13 (306 comments)

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  •  2011 elections (0+ / 0-)

    I believe that they were all Democratic held districts. Koenen's special was in very early 2012, and even that was Kulby's old seat, even though it is quite red presidentially, Democrats have held that area on the northern shore of the Minnesota River since the beginning of time.

    •  They were (1+ / 0-)
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      OGGoldy

      They were all DFL-held districts. I'm saying that while Democratic performance is a good starting point, we need to look at trends to predict what the electorate will look like in lower turnout elections. My example from 2011 was a primary where I identified that not only did the voters in SD66 skew towards Alice Hausman's district (and not John Lesch's, who was running for the senate seat), but that the lower turnout the election the higher the skew was towards certain precincts in what was 66B. We were able to use this data to get a better picture of what the electorate would look like and use our resources better. In the end, Mary Jo did beat Lesch, and I was very proud of that.

      So how does that apply? Saying that 14A was only 50-48 Romney is not very instructive. Even taking averages of multiple elections isn't as instructive as using the data available to project to lower turnout elections. You can do it crudely with precinct-level data, but much better with access to a high-quality voter file.

      I wasn't involved enough in these elections to do that. However, I did build projection models to use last night, that in each race with only 3 precincts in called the final margins to within a percent.

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