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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/13 (306 comments)

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  •  I never said that (0+ / 0-)

    but the fact that exactly zero scandal-free incumbents have lost when their party's nominee simultaneously carried their state since 1994* and the fact that this trend is filtering down to the house level (and in fact held up perfectly when significantly redistricted seats are excluded) makes it extremely difficult for us to beat someone who is essentially viewed as a generic member of their party, as both Burr and Hagan appear to be, while their nominee carries the same state.

    This isn't an iron law by any means, but the fact that it has held for 20 years worth of cycles and the electorate is only getting more and more straight ticket should give you pause when suggesting that Burr, who is only barely underwater in the 30s, will be vulnerable. We're trying to give a likelihood of his defeat this far out and it's just incredibly improbable that he would lose if Republicans carry North Carolina, barring a personal scandal.

    *Tim Johnson beat Larry Pressler in 1996, but Dole only won a narrow plurality in South Dakota that year.

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