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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/15 (237 comments)

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  •  The WBUR poll -- Is Markey going to be ok? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoUBears, LordMike, atdnext, MichaelNY

    I was a little surprised to see Markey at 38% and Lynch at 31%.  That isn't as big of a lead as I was expecting.  As an aside, didn't WBUR's pollster have issues last year between Brown and Warren?  If I recall correctly, weren't they a little all over the place?

    27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

    by IndyLiberal on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:12:26 AM PST

    •  Lynch is popular with a significant part (14+ / 0-)

      Of the Massachusetts Democratic base. However, I believe he has a ceiling of about 35% in a primary, as the Cambridge faction of the Massachusetts Democratic party will never warm up to him. Head to head, Markey will win handily, but don't think that Lynch is some pariah among the working class Democrats

    •  It'll be tough for Lynch to win in a two-person (8+ / 0-)

      race.  He'll get a lot of votes in blue collar areas in and around Boston, and in cities like Worcester.  But Markey will clean up among the white collar and higher educated, black and Latinos, as well as in the suburbs.

      by Paleo on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:28:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not a useful poll, really... (7+ / 0-)

      Too many undecideds to make it meaningful.  What it says is that Markey's "base" is around 40, while Lynch's is closer to 30.  So, that's a pretty good start.


      by LordMike on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:49:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's tough polling these races... (4+ / 0-)

      ...because who the hell knows what turnout will be.  Or who will be voting since it's a fairly open primary with a lot group of Massachusetts voters being independents.

      In the past the more conservative populist has surprised.  For example I am not sure there was a single poll showing John Silbert beating Frank Belloti.  Though everyone knew he was surging.

      The people you have probably heard of endorsed Belloti or the more liberal Evelyn Murphy (who dropped out just before the election to endorse Belloti).  In fact at the start everyone thought the race would be Murphy versus Belloti and that Silber's entrance would just increase the chances a Murphy upset.

      This race might instructive because the people you probably have NOT heard of such as Billy Bulger and the various people controlling local poliitcal machines backed Silber and got the vote out.  (As a side note it would not be shocking if Billy Bulger will be voting for Ed Markey given Lynch got into the state Senate by beating Bulger's son).

      Which is why who in Boston or Fall River or Lowell supports whom is far more important than which former or current Congressman, Attorney General, or Governor is support whom.  The thing to watch for is what Tom Menino does.  Notice I didn't use the word "says."  Menino might endorse or not endorse anyone.  Menino could endorse or not endorse anyone.  But if Lynch could get his political machine behind him that would be key.

      Silber also was very competitive raising money.  And great at getting himself on tv though sometimes for all the wrong reasons.  Lynch thus far has not been competitive.  Lynch is not a great personality who can cut through the media clutter.  Or a great fundraiser.

      And of course there are more areas where the analogy to past elections breaks down.  Lynch simply is not as conservative as people make him out to be (his vote on the Affordable Care act withstanding).  I'd compare the choices in this race as being between say Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Marcy Kaptur.  In contrast John Silber was a former member of the Kissinger Commission who ran in national conservative circles and Ed King was conservative enough that Ronald Reagan called him while he served as Governor his favorite Democrat.

      Also you have the base of these conservative Democrats literally dying off.  Those socially conservative but economically populist voters who lived in places such as Steve Lynch's South Boston are disappearing.

      But there is one thing that makes one hope that the old model is changing.  There is not just a tradition of conservative Democrats upsetting the more liberal candidate on primary day.  But of the liberal Republican then upsetting the Democratic nominee.  And "liberal" Republicans nowadays are not the Edward Brookes, Frank Sargent, and John Volpes of old.  They are just the ones who don't support defunding the national weather service.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:27:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Markey has far more pathways to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Answer Guy

      50% + 1 than Lynch does.  I think he'll win the primary handily, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up unopposed in the general.

      That being said, it sure would be nice if he'd get a damn website up.  Even the no-chance no-money Dem congressional nominee in my district had a very informative and professional website within a few weeks of announcing her candidacy.

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