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View Diary: Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu starts off the 2014 campaign in unexpectedly good shape (90 comments)

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  •  Yeah, seriously, don't fucking jinx it! (7+ / 0-)
    •  I'm conceding West Virginia (7+ / 0-)

      as a likely Republican gain but I think we have a good shot at holding the rest.  I see South Dakota being extremely close but Johnson holding on just barely.  And then in 2016 we'll probably pick up three or more seats.

      •  There are states far more likely to flip than WV (5+ / 0-)

        Just because they hate Obama doesn't mean a Democrat can't win there.

      •  If we can just ride out 2014 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Then we have great shots in 2016 at IL, WI and PA at the very least; we can do better if it's a good presidential year, although Reid could be in with a REALLY tough challenge if Sandoval runs for his seat.

        All depends on riding out 2014 first though, so let's make it happen.

        •  At this point... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          I have a hard time seeing Sandoval do that. He knows the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex will have a hard time saying no to the Senate Majority Leader. After all, a Senate Majority Leader is FAR more valuable than some no-name backbencher freshman. Perhaps I'm wrong, but so far history suggests otherwise. Whenever Brian Sandoval has had a chance to challenge Harry Reid, he's turned it down (because he doesn't like the odds of that fight).

        •  I think Kentucky too (0+ / 0-)

          It will either be an open seat or Paul running for re-election.  Either way, it will be much easier for Democrats to win there than it would be against well-funded incumbent McConnell.  Paul is well funded but his ideology is very far right even by Kentucky standards.

        •  Reid is the only seat to worry about for 2016 (0+ / 0-)

          Nevada and Colorado are the only states where we have seats up that aren't totally reliably blue at the Presidential level. Everything else is on one coast or the other and reliably blue. We'll win NV and CO for President, but both are states where we could conceivably lose a Senate seat at the same time, as 2012 demonstrated in NV. I'm not worried about CO. Bennett will be well-established by that point and there's nothing about him that shouldn't make him improve with age. He had the tenacity to hold on in 2010 against a weak opponent and his only real flaw then was that he'd just been appointed. Reid, on the other hand, is never going to be personally popular, and is probably not going to get to run against Sharron Angle again. There's a good chance he can win in a Presidential year, but I think it will be a dogfight. And there's always the possibility that he retires, even though I can't picture it. And our bench in Nevada is not as strong as it should be, especially with the various geographic divides in the state.

          •  See above. (0+ / 0-)

            It's more complicated than you think. Sure, Republicans here have succeeded in dragging down Harry Reid's favorables (ever since he became Democratic Leader). But again, the most powerful interests in this state do NOT want to lose the Senate Majority Leader!

            Last year, the "gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" overall didn't lean too strongly either way. But up in Reno, they were quite united behind Dean Heller because he's "one of them". Either way, the Senator would be a bottom-of-the-totem-pole freshman with minimal juice.

            But with Reid, the GML has a "Juice Master" who can deliver the goods from DC. And on top of that, he has the President on speed dial! GML power players in Vegas and Reno don't want to lose that. And if Reid looks anywhere near as vulnerable in 2016 as he did in 2010, they will circle their wagons around him (again).

        •  my thoughts on 2016 (0+ / 0-)

          AL - unless there is some Howell Heflin type still around, I'd give Shelby or whoever replaces him a pass. Sewell is probably focused on climbing the house seniority ladder

          AK - unless Murkowski is doing something blatantly corrupt she's probably safe

          AZ - its an open seat and the dems could at least contest it. Carmona, Pastor, Grijalva and Goddard are all too old. Sinema is an oppo researcher's dream and Kirkpatrick is also a little too old. Giffords would be the best candidate and it depends if she has recovered fully by then

          AR - I'm waiting to see if Pryor survives 2014 to see if AR is worth contesting anymore. Even if he does, I doubt Boozman can be defeated unless someone like Beebe runs (who has said he's uninterested)

          CA - Boxer may retire. If she does, someone like Michael Rubio could be the nominee

          CO - Bennet is inoffensive and will be okay. There's been talk of Gardner running for the seat, but I would think he'd be more interested in climbing the seniority ladder

          CT - I had heard that Blumenthal was an "emergency" candidate in 2010, but he will probably run again and win easily

          FL - Depends what Rubio does between now and then. If he becomes too "national" then it gives the dems an opening against him. After all, combining the Crist+Meeks voters can amount to a majority against him. If he looks beatable in 2-3 years then someone like Castor or that Jacksonville mayor could run against him

          GA - this is the ultimate "teaser" state. Isakson won only 57% but there are a lot of robot voters in this state. He might even retire

          HI - probably the safest dem seat in the entire Class III. Schatz could be a lifer

          ID - The only thing interesting about this is the GOP primary. Will people have forgotten about Crapo's drunk driving episode in three years?

          IL - I would think Foster would be the best candidate but he might want to stay in the house. Otherwise someone like Madigan or Simon could easily run

          IN - depends if Coats wants to stay (where he would be safe) and if he retires, who is nominated.

          IA - Grassley I think retires. Without Braley, the dems don't have a deep bench since the state only has four congressional seats. Tom Miller would be a good candidate but he's already old.  

          KS - Kansas hasn't elected a democrat to the senate since 1932. Next.

          KY - Paul I think would be easier to beat than McConnell. I think Grimes would be the most feasible option

          LA - Lousiana doesn't throw out incumbents. Vitter's safe.

          MD - Mikulski, despite being chair of appropriations, probably retires. I think O'Malley should run

          MO - Blunt is a hack of the worst order and Nixon could maybe defeat him. Other than that, he is likely safe

          NV - I envision a Sandoval vs Horsford matchup. Sandoval could pick it up if he's still popular

          NH - depends if Hassan is popular. If she is, she should run. There's no reason for NH to be represented by a freeper.

          NY - the second safest seat after HI. I doubt Schumer retires since he could become majority leader eventually

          NC - Burr has two unconvincing wins despite being the first person to win reelection to the seat since 1968. If the dems think he's vulnerable, they should get Easley or Schuler to run against him.

          ND - Hoeven is probably the safest republican in Class III

          OH - Portman won a convincing win in 2010 but his approval numbers haven't been great. Dems should wait and see how he is in 2-3 years. If they think he could be beaten, someone like Ryan could run against him

          OK - Coburn is retiring and unless Boren runs, this is safe R

          OR - Wyden is safe and I don't see him retiring

          PA - I don't care if people say he's popular, Toomey is beyond the bounds of acceptability. He's no Schweiker/Scott/Specter type. A catholic, mildly pro-life dem type should run against him.

          SC - Scott, while very conservative, doesn't seem as abrasive as DeMint. He should be safe

          SD - another Live Boy/Dead Girl seat

          UT - Lee ran below generic R in 2010 but he's still safe

          VT - Leahy may retire. If he does, I see Shumlin running

          WA - Murray will probably run for re-election and should be OK

          WI - run Ron Kind and RoJo will be fast approaching Santorum territory.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 11:34:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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