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View Diary: Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu starts off the 2014 campaign in unexpectedly good shape (90 comments)

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  •  I live in Louisiana, and there are already (12+ / 0-)

    pro-Landrieu ads on television from the oil and gas lobby.  Although Louisiana has mostly followed the rest of the South in supporting Republicans on the state and federal level, Landrieu has a solid moderate perception here among all but the hard right/Tea Party (which unfortunately is a decent percentage of the population).

    She could be hurt by a vote for an AWB, but if for some reason it came to a vote, I don't see a 'no' vote costing her very much.  She's very popular among Democrats here, and it would take a lot more than that for her to lose support in any significant manner.  In any case, I don't see Harry Reid forcing red state Dems to take a tough vote on an AWB if it's never going to come to a vote in the House.

    I think if Landrieu could survive 2008, when Obama lost by 20 and performed even worse here than in 2012, she'll make it again.  I doubt she'll ever win by more than 5-10 points, but fortunately that's all she needs.

    •  I live in New Orleans (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly, atdnext, VClib

      and I agree with you.  I also know various and sundry Landrieus -- there are a bunch of them.  :)

      I think it's ironic that the high point of the President's speech last night was the "they deserve a vote" part, and the people who really DON'T want that vote are red-state Democrats like Mary.  She will probably opt to vote against her party, bringing down the ire of partisans like many here.  She certainly doesn't want to be put in that position if what she's forced to vote on has no chance of becoming law.  

      What is going to be interesting is when the Senate Democrats, as Senator Schumer has promised, produce a budget and pass it through the Senate.  If it has things in it that are a "red flag" to conservatives or the business lobby, and she votes yes, that could really hurt her in November 2014.  

      I've also been seeing those "she supports the oil and gas industry" ads.  She needs to keep in the good graces of LABI, and the oil and gas industry, until November 2014 if she is going to keep her seat.  If she votes to "close the oil company loopholes," for example, as the President wants, that could cost her LABI/oil and gas industry support.

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