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View Diary: Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu starts off the 2014 campaign in unexpectedly good shape (90 comments)

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  •  my thoughts on 2016 (0+ / 0-)

    AL - unless there is some Howell Heflin type still around, I'd give Shelby or whoever replaces him a pass. Sewell is probably focused on climbing the house seniority ladder

    AK - unless Murkowski is doing something blatantly corrupt she's probably safe

    AZ - its an open seat and the dems could at least contest it. Carmona, Pastor, Grijalva and Goddard are all too old. Sinema is an oppo researcher's dream and Kirkpatrick is also a little too old. Giffords would be the best candidate and it depends if she has recovered fully by then

    AR - I'm waiting to see if Pryor survives 2014 to see if AR is worth contesting anymore. Even if he does, I doubt Boozman can be defeated unless someone like Beebe runs (who has said he's uninterested)

    CA - Boxer may retire. If she does, someone like Michael Rubio could be the nominee

    CO - Bennet is inoffensive and will be okay. There's been talk of Gardner running for the seat, but I would think he'd be more interested in climbing the seniority ladder

    CT - I had heard that Blumenthal was an "emergency" candidate in 2010, but he will probably run again and win easily

    FL - Depends what Rubio does between now and then. If he becomes too "national" then it gives the dems an opening against him. After all, combining the Crist+Meeks voters can amount to a majority against him. If he looks beatable in 2-3 years then someone like Castor or that Jacksonville mayor could run against him

    GA - this is the ultimate "teaser" state. Isakson won only 57% but there are a lot of robot voters in this state. He might even retire

    HI - probably the safest dem seat in the entire Class III. Schatz could be a lifer

    ID - The only thing interesting about this is the GOP primary. Will people have forgotten about Crapo's drunk driving episode in three years?

    IL - I would think Foster would be the best candidate but he might want to stay in the house. Otherwise someone like Madigan or Simon could easily run

    IN - depends if Coats wants to stay (where he would be safe) and if he retires, who is nominated.

    IA - Grassley I think retires. Without Braley, the dems don't have a deep bench since the state only has four congressional seats. Tom Miller would be a good candidate but he's already old.  

    KS - Kansas hasn't elected a democrat to the senate since 1932. Next.

    KY - Paul I think would be easier to beat than McConnell. I think Grimes would be the most feasible option

    LA - Lousiana doesn't throw out incumbents. Vitter's safe.

    MD - Mikulski, despite being chair of appropriations, probably retires. I think O'Malley should run

    MO - Blunt is a hack of the worst order and Nixon could maybe defeat him. Other than that, he is likely safe

    NV - I envision a Sandoval vs Horsford matchup. Sandoval could pick it up if he's still popular

    NH - depends if Hassan is popular. If she is, she should run. There's no reason for NH to be represented by a freeper.

    NY - the second safest seat after HI. I doubt Schumer retires since he could become majority leader eventually

    NC - Burr has two unconvincing wins despite being the first person to win reelection to the seat since 1968. If the dems think he's vulnerable, they should get Easley or Schuler to run against him.

    ND - Hoeven is probably the safest republican in Class III

    OH - Portman won a convincing win in 2010 but his approval numbers haven't been great. Dems should wait and see how he is in 2-3 years. If they think he could be beaten, someone like Ryan could run against him

    OK - Coburn is retiring and unless Boren runs, this is safe R

    OR - Wyden is safe and I don't see him retiring

    PA - I don't care if people say he's popular, Toomey is beyond the bounds of acceptability. He's no Schweiker/Scott/Specter type. A catholic, mildly pro-life dem type should run against him.

    SC - Scott, while very conservative, doesn't seem as abrasive as DeMint. He should be safe

    SD - another Live Boy/Dead Girl seat

    UT - Lee ran below generic R in 2010 but he's still safe

    VT - Leahy may retire. If he does, I see Shumlin running

    WA - Murray will probably run for re-election and should be OK

    WI - run Ron Kind and RoJo will be fast approaching Santorum territory.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 11:34:49 PM PST

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