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View Diary: Political Geography of the States: Part 1, the West (44 comments)

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  •  Some more 411 on The 702 (& 775) (1+ / 0-)
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    Stephen Wolf

    Overall, you're correct about the concentration of Nevada Democrats' strength in Clark County. I'll just add that at this point, Clark has a stable Democratic lean. Even as Brian Sandoval was romping everywhere else in NV-Gov 2010, he only squeaked past Rory Reid 49-47 here in Clark. Other than Sandoval, Brian Krolicki was the only other statewide Republican to win Clark in 2010 (and that was because the Dem running against him for LG was a Reno City Council Member who was unfamiliar to the vast majority of voters here).

    Washoe, OTOH, is more prone to ticket splitting. That's where we saw the lion's share of "Obama-Heller voters" last year. And because the Democratic bench is still weak at the local level there (as they've been accustomed to voting Republican down-ballot), it will take a while to build up the party brand there.

    The overall trend is still great for Democrats here. As long as the state continues to become more urban and diverse, Democrats will have a high floor statewide while Republicans struggle with a lower ceiling. Dems just have to keep the strong field machine... And work some more on making inroads in Washoe County.

    •  It would have been really interesting to see (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NMLib, atdnext, elfling

      what Clark looked like at the precinct level this year, since overall it trended Republican just relative to 2008, but that almost has to be solely due to the rural areas and whiter suburbs. I can't imagine Obama falling much if any in places like North Las Vegas. I have a hunch that 2008 was somewhat of a blip in that the west lurched left that year by more than it "should" have and that we'll see Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico resume their trend Dem in 2016 after a mild slide this year. The states aren't getting any whiter and the younger generations of voters in all three are wildly more Democratic than older cohorts of the same demographic groups, if polling is to be believed.

      I had considered doing the precinct level maps again like I did last year, but the data is getting kind of stale since it's 2008 president and DRA rather annoyingly included house races for Nevada and a few others which totally distorts the partisan average, even when every seat is open such as New Mexico 2008.

      •  Yes, it is. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        Just look at the Pres-by-CD numbers. There are more swing voters here in NV-03, so it's more elastic... And Romney made up ground among older, richer white voters here. NV-04, however, roughly remained D+3 as Obama remained strong in the urban part of the district. And Obama actually GAINED ground in NV-01, home to the urban core of Clark County.

        Trust me, there's no long-term GOP trend here. If anything, the opposite remains true. Especially as Clark becomes minority-majority, Democrats will be fine here in the south.

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