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View Diary: Political Geography of the States: Part 1, the West (44 comments)

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  •  You're onto something. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, leftreborn, Alibguy

    I wouldn't say Arizona is trending Republican, more that a Democratic trend has been harder to take root there. Obama actually remained flat overall there, which means it trended slightly Dem from 2008 to 2012. Still, it wasn't as much as I and others were hoping for.

    There are various reasons why Republicans have fared better in Arizona than in neighboring Southwest states (with the one obvious exception of Utah). For one, I believe Arizona has the largest % of retirees of any state. Also, Arizona's largest metro area (Phoenix) has a large outer ring of "Blood Red" suburbs filled with those very retirees and/or LDS heavy communities.

    Also, you can't ignore the weakness of the Arizona Democratic Party. Really, what's there? Even though Arizona has a slightly higher % of Latin@s than Nevada, Latin@ turnout was higher here. And even thougj Phoenix is a much bigger city than Las Vegas, Vegas seems to have a much stronger Democratic base AND Democratic bench of local electeds.

    •  Sadly, I think if Gabby Giffords hadn't been shot (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      leftreborn, James Allen

      she would be in the senate right now. Rich Carmona had never run for elected office before had no natural base in the state like Giffords' 8th district, slightly outspent Flake when taking 3rd party groups into account, and lost by just 3% while Obama lost by 9%.

      Giffords staffers had clearly indicated she intended to run for senate if Kyl retired and she would have gotten in early, cleared the field, and raised a lot more money than Carmona.

      It may take a generation rather than a few cycles, but eventually demographics will result in Arizona following the trend of the rest of the southwest.

      •  It almost seems as if there's a taboo on this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, skibum59

        topic.  There was a buzz developing about Giffords' chance for statewide office before she was shot.  We don't have many Democrats in Arizona who can succeed statewide.  She fit the  mold.  Instead we ended up with Jeff Flake who I believe is a decent man, though I disagree emphatically with almost all of his voting record in the House.  Like some other Republicans did as a bipartisan gesture, he accompanied a Democrat at the 2012 State of the Union.  His date was Giffords. Very soon after, he assisted her to the podium when she announced her resignation from the House.  

        I wrote to Jeff recently. I asked him to remember holding Giffords hand, and to reflect whether he'd have a Senate seat if not for the shooting. I told him I respect the example he set for Republicans with Giffords, and that I expect him to remember her when gun safety legislation comes to a vote in a Senate.

        "Democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ---'Fighting Bob' LaFollette

        by leftreborn on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 01:13:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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