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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/22 (373 comments)

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  •  Random thought (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BennyToothpick, dc1000, MichaelNY

    What will be the first state legislature we win back in the deep South? If we ever do that is. Allotting a lot of time I would go with Louisiana but it is a tough call.  

    •  Louisiana is a weird case (4+ / 0-)

      Generally, the Governor's party gets control of the state House.  It doesn't really matter who controls the body.  

      •  And even when Dems controlled the house (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        By numbers, there were still Republican chairs of committees. Louisiana is just weird with its porous party lines.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 11:37:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  what about the South in general? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      With time I'll say North Carolina then Florida.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:38:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe South Carolina I would venture (7+ / 0-)

      considering we have the best chance there of actually electing a Democratic governor who can block a gerrymander.

      I'd say Mississippi is last given its odd year elections followed by Alabama given how red it is and how conservadems have started voting straight ticket.

      So South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi in descending likelihood.

      •  I think MS won't be last (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, BeloitDem, Chachy, pademocrat, MichaelNY

        AL is probably last.  MS on the other hand is gradually getting more Dem over the past decade or so.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:49:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's funny how you mention MS (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        it was one of the first state senates we won back on a technicality (due to party swtiching). You see the GOP had assumed control of the senate with a few party swtiching Dems but the Democrats came back and gained 3 seats in 2007 putting them back in control till 2 more Democrats left to become Republicans in 2010

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:33:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Actually Mississippi is an interesting case (6+ / 0-)

        Mississippi is the only Deep South state legislature where the Democratic Party still has significant membership coming from heavily white, ultra-conservative districts.  With the exception of one State Senator from a super red district in Northern Alabama, the rest of the Deep South legislatures are divided totally on racial lines with Democrats coming from heavily black or black majority districts and Republicans taking the rest.

        South Carolina has a handful of Democrats (like Vincent Sheheen) in Republican leaning districts but none in districts that were won by Mitt Romney by 70% or more, as there are in Mississippi.

        The problem with Mississippi is that Democrats probably won't grow their ranks in conservative territory, unless Jim Hood ever decides to run for governor and brings more Democrats in on his coattails.

        But given that MS Republicans only have a narrow majority in the state legislature, whereas other Deep south states have huge Republican majorities, I'd at least put Mississippi above Alabama, Louisiana, and maybe Georgia.

    •  It'll be a while (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      But Virginia and Georgia seem to be the likeliest candidates.

      •  VA isn't deep south (7+ / 0-)

        Heck it's on its way to becoming like Maryland (as in formerly a southern state, but undergoes a cultural revolution).

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:50:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Virginia's Southside (5+ / 0-)

          could fit as part of the Deep South, but it's a rather small part of the state population wise.

          VA's big metro areas include Northern Virginia, which is probably best classified as part of the Northeast Corridor these days; Tidewater/Hampton Roads, which is its own animal, more southern than NOVA but more cosmopolitan than the traditional southern city; and Richmond, which is the most southern of the three (it was the Confederate capital, after all), but isn't interchangeable with, say, Birmingham.

          There's also the rural Tidewater (coastal, but not really Deep South); rural Piedmont (sort of border-southern); and the west/southwest (the state's bit of Appalachia.)

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:36:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  None of that is deep south (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, Chachy, pademocrat, MichaelNY

            None of North Carolina is deep south either.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:46:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'd say maybe the southeast, but that's pushing it (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, Chachy, pademocrat
            •  None of North Carolina? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              While it isn't most of the state, the rural tobacco and cotton growing areas of North Carolina have always seemed deep southern to me, in terms of economy, social conditions, and politics; these were the Demosaur-turned-GOP voters that inflicted Jesse Helms on the country time and again.

              Such areas are of course heavily outvoted by the urban areas, many of which could pass for northern, and there's a lot of non-Deep Southern Piedmont and Appalachian territory there as well, but at least some areas of NC could reasonably pass for Deep South, though the state as a whole certainly can't.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:59:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Generally (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Some of the parts you speak of used-to-could be considered deep south, but the problem is that they've either changed culturally (Wilmington, Fayetteville, Elizabethtown) into northeastern retirement outposts (begging the question of whether or not South Carolina is still entirely deep south) or were never really deep south (Lumberton and that area) because of the heavily Native American cultural influence.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:32:28 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Rural white areas of these states ARE Deep South (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Rural white Virginia and rural white NC most definitely are Deep South culturally.  They are just shrinking percentages of the states' populations, and of steadily diminishing influence in the states' politics.  But they are as Southern as anyplace, which is true of everywhere in the white rural South.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:22:24 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Hold on a second (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv

                    Would you then be claiming that West Virginia is Deep South? Because that would be really ahistorical.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:37:44 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm borderline but think maybe yes (0+ / 0-)

                      I was thinking of the Old Confederacy when I typed that, and wasn't thinking of WV, but I'm not sure it's really that different.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:26:10 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  It sure is (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        wwmiv, Chachy

                        Just because the whites there are now conservative can't make it part of the Deep South, given that they actually seceded from Virginia to support the Union. I don't think we should redefine "Deep South" to mean "conservative whites from Southern and boarder states who vote Republican."

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:33:11 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe LA? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:48:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  NOLA is growing up again (4+ / 0-)

        Shreveport's bluing NW Louisiana, the Baton Rouge metro is bluing.  the only parts that are reddening are the SW bayous.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:53:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  NOLA may be growing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but Orleans Parish is less than 8% of the state's population. It'll take a lot of time for that growth to become demographically meaningful.

          •  And is New Orleans' growth (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            really increasing beyond where it was before the last decade, or is it just making up for a temporary post-Katrina drop?

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:25:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, it's still well behind where it was (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              pre-Katrina. And I would add that to the extent Lousiana's political hopes depend on an influx of white liberals re-populating New Orleans (an idea I've heard bandied about)... there's barely over 100,000 white people in the parish, and obviously not all of them are liberal, vs. 2.75 million in the state as a whole. That dog's not gonna hunt.

          •  Every bit helps. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And if it's part of a larger mosaic, which I'm saying, it really helps.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 11:16:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Deep South: (7+ / 0-)

      Let's all remember what the deep south is, because we seem to be forgetting:

      Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

      Parts of Texas and Florida are Deep South, but not the entire states so we can exclude those for the purposes of this question.

      Georgia's demographics are moving in our favor, but the VRA hinders our potential there. Even still, that's clearly the best bet.

      South Carolina's demographics are also moving in our favor, but more slowly and from a lower position. #2.

      Louisiana's an interesting case as mentioned by many here. I repeat their reasons, but I can't pick between it and Mississippi with the latter's demographic trend. Tied at #3.

      Alabama is hopeless. Give it up. The demographics are moving against us there, aren't they? Too white, too conservative, too hard. Won't happen for until party coalitions shift again.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:05:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why do I keep seeing this? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, OGGoldy, pademocrat, Inoljt
        South Carolina's demographics are also moving in our favor, but more slowly and from a lower position. #2.
        South Carolina was the only state in the lower 48 where the white population grew faster than the black population in the 2000's. And their hispanic and other populations are smaller than they are in GA or NC.

        So how are demographics moving in our direction? Is there some sort of economic change I'm not aware of that is to our advantage? All I know about is that it's an increasingly popular retirement destination for conservative-leaning folks, which is hardly helpful to us (and possibly accounts for the relative growth of the white population).

        •  Because the "retirement" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          Population growth that you seem to think of isn't as Republican as the rest of the state as a whole, moving the needle just slightly toward us.

          And that isn't just what matters. What also matters is the distribution of voters across the state, which seems to work more in our favor here than in other southern states.

          Demographics doesn't just mean "is the black population growing faster than the white population".

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:34:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  demographics (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY
            Demographics doesn't just mean "is the black population growing faster than the white population".
            Yes, that's why I also considered growth of hispanics and others, the economic profile of the state, and migration patterns in my comment.
            the "retirment" population growth that you seem to think of isn't as Republican as the rest of the state as a whole, moving the needle just slightly toward us.
            If a state votes 60-40 for republicans and and gains a bunch of people who vote 55-45 Republican, that isn't helpful to Dems. It allows Dems to improve their percentage of the vote, but causes them to lose by a greater absolute number of votes.

            On the other hand, if demographic distribution of the population is changing in a way that's helpful to us, that's an interesting point; please elaborate...

      •  basically Goldwater states minus AZ (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, pademocrat, jncca, MichaelNY

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:36:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Discounting Florida and Texas? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      Mississippi. GA is too gerrymandered, and we still hold quite a few of the demosaur seats in MS, at least vis-à-vis AL and GA.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:40:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Definitely Georgia. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Gerrymandering isn't an issue because we aren't winning any legislatures in the region this decade anyway, barring a huge wave. Demographics are moving in an extremely favorable direction for us - whites are already below 59% of registered voters, which is down 1.3% just since last May.

      Beyond that, the picking's are really slim. Maybe I'd guess South Carolina, just because of the possibility that it might start turning in a North Carolina-type direction.

      I guess I'll go Mississippi for #3, just on the hope that southern white identity becomes more integrated into the mainstream over the next 10-20 years; MS starts from such a high base with it's black population that it wouldn't take that much to put it over the top.

      Louisiana #4 - same reason but less so.

      Alabama might be the most impenetrable state for us in the country.

      •  Beware of the Georgia SOS Numbers (0+ / 0-)

        The unknowns must, given the turnout statistics for this year compared with those collected for 2000-2010 by actually competent Secretary of State's, be overwhelmingly white.

        •  "White" plus "Other" in the numbers... (0+ / 0-)

          ...add up to 67% of all voters, and I assume you're saying the white vote was somewhere in the mid-60s.

          That sounds about right, but I wouldn't be surprised if "other" was less white than you think......but offset by the reality that Hispanics and Asians have poor turnout rates.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:27:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I would tell MS-StH (0+ / 0-)

      It is a difficult goal.

      Fortunately there are more favourable options in NH, PA, IA, WI, MI and VA.

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