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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/22 (373 comments)

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  •  Deep South: (7+ / 0-)

    Let's all remember what the deep south is, because we seem to be forgetting:

    Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

    Parts of Texas and Florida are Deep South, but not the entire states so we can exclude those for the purposes of this question.

    Georgia's demographics are moving in our favor, but the VRA hinders our potential there. Even still, that's clearly the best bet.

    South Carolina's demographics are also moving in our favor, but more slowly and from a lower position. #2.

    Louisiana's an interesting case as mentioned by many here. I repeat their reasons, but I can't pick between it and Mississippi with the latter's demographic trend. Tied at #3.

    Alabama is hopeless. Give it up. The demographics are moving against us there, aren't they? Too white, too conservative, too hard. Won't happen for until party coalitions shift again.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:05:34 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Why do I keep seeing this? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, OGGoldy, pademocrat, Inoljt
      South Carolina's demographics are also moving in our favor, but more slowly and from a lower position. #2.
      South Carolina was the only state in the lower 48 where the white population grew faster than the black population in the 2000's. And their hispanic and other populations are smaller than they are in GA or NC.

      So how are demographics moving in our direction? Is there some sort of economic change I'm not aware of that is to our advantage? All I know about is that it's an increasingly popular retirement destination for conservative-leaning folks, which is hardly helpful to us (and possibly accounts for the relative growth of the white population).

      •  Because the "retirement" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        Population growth that you seem to think of isn't as Republican as the rest of the state as a whole, moving the needle just slightly toward us.

        And that isn't just what matters. What also matters is the distribution of voters across the state, which seems to work more in our favor here than in other southern states.

        Demographics doesn't just mean "is the black population growing faster than the white population".

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:34:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  demographics (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY
          Demographics doesn't just mean "is the black population growing faster than the white population".
          Yes, that's why I also considered growth of hispanics and others, the economic profile of the state, and migration patterns in my comment.
          the "retirment" population growth that you seem to think of isn't as Republican as the rest of the state as a whole, moving the needle just slightly toward us.
          If a state votes 60-40 for republicans and and gains a bunch of people who vote 55-45 Republican, that isn't helpful to Dems. It allows Dems to improve their percentage of the vote, but causes them to lose by a greater absolute number of votes.

          On the other hand, if demographic distribution of the population is changing in a way that's helpful to us, that's an interesting point; please elaborate...

    •  basically Goldwater states minus AZ (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, pademocrat, jncca, MichaelNY

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:36:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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