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View Diary: New ad for marriage equality shows the fight is over and the bigots lost (62 comments)

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  •  Yeah, still in the Dem half of the country... (0+ / 0-)

    All of our victories (except Iowa and New Hampshire) have been in states that have been reliably Blue for the last 20 years. New Hampshire, I think it is the "neighborhood" and the streak of libertarianism on the Republican side. The fact that Iowa is on our side is largely a fluke of the fact that (A) the state has a long complex method of getting a change to the state consitution to the voters and (B) the Dems holding on to one house of the Legislature by our fingernails (26D-24R currently)

    The reasonable targets in the next 2-3 years are those reliably blue states on the coasts (HI,CA,OR, DE, RI) and Illinois. I'm less sure about the Midwest, as states that are Blue because of Labor aren't necessarily as pro-Marriage Equality on this issue. However, Minnesota isn't as much of a Labor state, so possible target and perhaps Ohio.

    Beyond that, I'd look in two areas, the remainder of the foundry (MI,WI,PA), Florida and the Libertarian leaning Intermontaine West (NM, CO, WY, MT, AK). (I expect one of the last three to be the first state with Marriage Equality that didn't vote for Obama in 2012)

    Any state that I haven't listed, I don't expect to see anything done internally (i.e. no equivalent of Virginia v Loving) until at least 2018.

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