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View Diary: 2012 candidates versus the expectations game (87 comments)

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  •  A word about Mark Takano. (7+ / 0-)

    He won the California 41st by almost 13 points in what was deemed a toss-up race. His Republican opponent, John Tavaglione, was much better known and was widely respected. He was was a county supervisor whereas Takano was only a member of a community college board. Tavaglione is sane--a conservative but not a tea-party type. His campaign was more visible on the ground and in the press, and I would expect (though I don't know) that it spent more money. Tavaglione was endorsed by the once-significant Riverside Press-Enterprise. The day after the election, the P-E, apparently in a snit, barely mentioned that Takano had won.

    Takano's internal polling showed a very close race, though it indicated that Takano would probably pull it out. Takano's pollster told him to expect a long night. Yet in the end, Takano won easily. What happened?

    It's just as David says. Latinos, African Americans, and Asian Americans turned out in force to vote for Obama, and most of them stuck around to vote for Takano as well. They also elected a Democratic state senator and assemblyman to replace Republicans. The politics of Riverside has dramatically changed, thanks in part to changing demographics (growing Latino and Asian-American populations).

    The pro-Democratic shift is also thanks in part to the end of legislatively-drawn districts, which, it turned out, favored Republicans even though Democrats (guided by Howard Berman's brother Michael) nominally drew the lines. The new independent commission, drawing non-politicized lines, helped the Democrats more than the Democrats ever did themselves. Once districts were no longer drawn to protect incumbents, it was the Republican incumbents who dropped like flies in an increasingly Democratic state (either by losing a viable district to run in or by being defeated at the polls).

    As David says, Takano will be in Congress for a long time. He's going to be excellent. And Riverside has become another Democratic bastion in a state full of them.

    •  well his district is dem leaning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      but there's actually a lot of variance in Riverside County. Right next door down I-15 is the 42nd district which is a very conservative district.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:45:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, the neighboring 42nd is red. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        It elected the corrupt Ken Calvert. It takes in rural parts of the east county, plus retirement communities such as Sun City, plus Orange County-adjacent communities such as Corona, plus a small section of Orange County itself.

        But the city of Riverside, the county seat, a university town, and the biggest city in the county, is now the heart of the new and quite blue 41st. It elected the excellent progressive Mark Takano. That's the point I was trying to make. When I spoke about Riverside, I meant the city, not the entire county. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

      •  Obama got over 61% here in CA-41. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think it's a bit more than just Dem leaning.  :-)

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