Skip to main content

View Diary: CIA Expert to Bush/Cheney: "Get A Grip On Reality" of Iraq (220 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  questions of calibration (none)
    I think that there's an interesting tightrope being walked. I have no doubts, though, that a central - and popular - plank of the Iraqi Shia platform is the removal of US forces from Iraq.

    The question will be at what point and under what circumstances they decide to do that. In the end, I think it comes down to a judgement of how you calibrate the violence in Baghdad and the Sunni West and North between anti-occupation and nakedly sectarian. This is tough to call.

    I can't speak to local judgements on this. But, if you reckoned that the end of occupation would lead to a 50% reduction in violence plus the possibility of bringing a significant section of the Sunni population into the national dialogue, then it would be an interesting calculation. At what point this calculation gets made is another matter. My guess is that we'll find out in the next 12-18 months.

    It's also noteworthy that the bulk of the violence occurs where the US happens to be. The 9 Shia provinces of the South are lightly patrolled by small coalition contingents, and simply not gripped by the endless, endemic violence found elsewhere. Either the local Shia security apparatus is shit-hot, or there are other variables at play - the most glaring being the collision of US occupation with a hostile population.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site