Skip to main content

View Diary: Obama ready for war with Iran: Time Mag (118 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Define "threatened" (10+ / 0-)

    As of yet they have no delivery system. Once they have a delivery system they have to worry about the BMD system up in Alaska, because they are no where near the avionics necessary for sophisticated counter-measures.

    Thirty years from now we may have a problem.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:14:52 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  They have ships . (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark, The Nose

      A threat also is maybe a shipping container attack .
      Or an aircraft .

      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

      by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:25:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ship, yes (9+ / 0-)

        Aircraft, no. They have no aerial refueling capability and no military planes capable of trans-pacific flight.

        The question is, can they load a bomb onto a ship, sail across the Pacific, and detonate that bomb without us knowing?

        I suspect they can't.

        Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

        by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:28:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wake up? (0+ / 0-)

          North Korean Missile Said to Have Military Purpose

          SEOUL, South Korea — South Korean technicians scrutinizing the debris of the North Korean rocket launched this month have found evidence suggesting the rocket’s military purposes and the North’s technological ties with Iran in its efforts to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, South Korean officials said Sunday.

          "When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains, And the women come out to cut up what remains, Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains An' go to your Gawd like a soldier." Rudyard Kipling

          by EdMass on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:37:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Still not capable of reaching US by a factor of 20 (9+ / 0-)

            And their nukes are still very heavy.

            As I said elsewhere, 30 years out we may have a problem.

            Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

            by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:39:58 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You have some info on the weight (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              EdMass

              of their last nuke ?

              Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

              by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:45:37 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It was reported in the press as being smaller (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                corvo, SilentBrook

                I, personally, have not seen it or weighed it.

                Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:53:09 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  So we don't know how big or small it might be . (0+ / 0-)
                  I, personally, have not seen it or weighed it.
                  "Personally" ? I really think you are playing games .

                  Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                  by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 10:02:11 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Do you understand the physics of an a-bomb? (5+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SilentBrook, antooo, Aspe4, Smoh, KenBee

                    It normally takes critical mass of uranium to cause an explosion. But you can't store critical mass because it explodes. So you have two half-critical pieces and shove them together when you want an explosion.

                    That design results in a very heavy bomb.

                    Suppose you want a lighter one. What you have to do is shove two pieces together that don't add up to critical mass, and compress them with an explosion. The two pieces have to be smooshed together by the explosion, not blown apart.

                    That's hard to do. It is harder to do a small bomb than a big one. The smaller, the harder.

                    They have, per reports, made progress toward smaller bombs. They are not, per reports, at the point where their bomb is warhead sized for the ballistic missiles they possess.

                    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                    by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 10:29:55 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  ... (0+ / 0-)
                      Do you understand the physics of an a-bomb?
                      The real physics ? No I can't say that I know the real "physics" of an A-Bomb . The real "physics" of an A-Bomb is very complex and not something many people know , it takes a real education in the field to understand .
                      If on the other hand you are asking me if I know the basics , then I'll say I have studied up on the subject .
                      That design results in a very heavy bomb.
                      How heavy is "very heavy" ?

                      If we are talking a basic gun design , "little boy" , just slamming one bit into another , it isn't very heavy . A small yield can be had from something that a human can carry .
                      A small yield that will do real damage to a city .

                      http://www.dailykos.com/...

                      The design for small weapons is known already ,
                      the Bosporus straights is said to have detectors to try and catch things leaving on ships , but that is not the only way things can leave , nor will it see plans .
                      We don't know what North Korea is doing re the design , it would make some sense for them to be working on "small" .
                      Its more dangerous to have more small than few large .
                      Small can be "lost" as has been seen with the small from the USSR .
                      So lets not jump to conclusions before we have facts in hand .

                      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                      by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 10:59:31 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Loose Nukes . (0+ / 0-)

                      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                      Russian suitcase nukes
                      The highest-ranking GRU defector Stanislav Lunev claimed that such Russian-made devices do exist and described them in more detail.[6] These devices, "identified as RA-115s (or RA-115-01s for submersible weapons)" weigh from fifty to sixty pounds. They can last for many years if wired to an electric source. In case there is a loss of power, there is a battery backup. If the battery runs low, the weapon has a transmitter that sends a coded message—either by satellite or directly to a GRU post at a Russian embassy or consulate.” According to Lunev, the number of "missing" nuclear devices (as found by General Lebed) "is almost identical to the number of strategic targets upon which those bombs would be used."[6]

                      Lunev suggested that suitcase nukes might be already deployed by the GRU operatives on US soil to assassinate US leaders in the event of war.[6] He alleged that arms caches were hidden by the KGB in many countries for the planned terrorism acts. They were booby-trapped with "Lightning" explosive devices. One such cache, identified by Vasili Mitrokhin, exploded when Swiss authorities tried to remove it from a wooded area near Bern. Several others caches were removed successfully.[7] Lunev said that he had personally looked for hiding places for weapons caches in the Shenandoah Valley area[6] and that "it is surprisingly easy to smuggle nuclear weapons into the US" either across the Mexican border or using a small transport missile that can slip undetected when launched from a Russian airplane.[6] US Congressman Curt Weldon supported claims by Lunev but noted that Lunev had "exaggerated things" according to the FBI.[8] Searches of the areas identified by Lunev have been conducted, "but law-enforcement officials have never found such weapons caches, with or without portable nuclear weapons."[9]

                      http://www.pbs.org/...

                      alexei yablokov

                      Do "backpack" nuclear weapons exist?

                      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                      by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 11:11:38 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  Who said military ? (0+ / 0-)
          no military planes capable of trans-pacific flight.
          If you want to sneak a bomb into someone else's airspace ,
          a commercial aircraft ...

          Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

          by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:38:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's going to be a commercial airliner, then (7+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            VClib, corvo, trumpeter, SilentBrook, antooo, Aspe4, Smoh

            Guess how big North Korea's domestic airline is?

            Twenty-three planes. Newest are the Tupolev Tu-204-300 with a range of 5,000 NMI. Distance SF - Pyongyang is 4,861 NMI. So, if they load their bomb onto their best jet liner, and then fly directly toward SF without flight clearance, they can get shot down with a few hundred miles of fuel left in their tanks.

            Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

            by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:52:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do you know of the C150 to Africa ? (0+ / 0-)

              Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

              by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:03:13 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you know how many of those North Korea has? (8+ / 0-)

                The answer is, none.

                Do you know how closely the US tracks purchases of things by North Korea?

                The answer is, very.

                Do you know what the chances are something can fly out of North Korea in any direction and not be picked up by US intelligence?

                The answer is, zero.

                Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:09:41 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  "Those" being C150s ? (0+ / 0-)

                  If that's what you are asking , you are not understanding my post .

                  Do you know what the chances are something can fly out of North Korea in any direction and not be picked up by US intelligence?

                  The answer is, zero.

                  Zero would equal perfection . Perfection is not something I believe in .

                  In the past we , the US , have been interested to find out what was aboard a North Korean ship .

                  Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                  by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:40:26 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Which still does not address my other point (0+ / 0-)

                    Nothing flies out of North Korea without being picked up by radar. If something flies out of North Korea and heads on a straight line toward US territory an F-22 or F-35 will pay them a little visit several hundred miles off the coast.

                    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                    by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 01:00:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Who said "straight line" ? (0+ / 0-)

                      I do believe you are the only person who said that .
                      And its what I believe is called a straw man .

                      If you wanted to attack , would you or any thinking person fly a straight path across ?

                      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                      by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 04:03:43 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  So you believe in perfection ? (0+ / 0-)
                      Nothing flies out of North Korea without being picked up by radar.
                      A light aircraft , made of fiberglass , flying treetop ...

                      Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                      by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 04:08:25 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  In this case I do know whereof I speak (0+ / 0-)

                        OK, nothing's perfect.

                        So they can put one of their few precious nukes on one of their few precious trans-Pacific planes and hope that that a 1 in 10000 bet pays off.

                        Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                        by blue aardvark on Fri Mar 01, 2013 at 05:51:27 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  Maybe you don't know what a C150 is ? (0+ / 0-)

                  Or what it means to fly one from America to Africa ?

                  Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                  by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 10:10:08 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Yebbut (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          blue aardvark

          they can completely wreck the economy by wrecking Seoul, and there's nothing that can be done about it.

          They don't even need the Bomb to do it, the US Army War College has stated that the thousands of large artillery pieces along the DMZ can lob 500,000 rounds into the suburbs of Seoul in the first hour that they launch an attack, and there is absolutely no way to stop them, even with nuclear weapons, which no one would use against them anyway.

          Obviously the PDRK would cease to exist as a political entity shortly thereafter, but the damage would be done, Asian markets would crash, followed by markets around the world.

          These crazy fuckers have the world economy by it's testicles, and there's nothing that can be done about it.

          I suggest bribery. Or spies. Or something. I remember an Onion-like piece that suggested massive bombing of the North with millions of different types of consumer goods from heavy transport planes....

          "Ronald Reagan is DEAD! His policies live on but we're doing something about THAT!"

          by leftykook on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:55:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  asdf (7+ / 0-)

            "I remember an Onion-like piece that suggested massive bombing of the North with millions of different types of consumer goods from heavy transport planes...."

            Just food would do the trick......

          •  Actually, they're not such (5+ / 0-)

            crazy fu(kers, they are responding to bullying.
            And we could end both conflicts, Korea and Iran, by stopping threatening them.
            Destroy your enemies by making them your allies.
            Iran asked us to help them with their domestic nuclear energy program. We declined, even though the program was started by us under the Shah. If we want to keep tabs on and have influence over Iran's nuke program, there was a golden opportunity.
            I find it amazing that we even acknowledge either of these pipsqueeks as existential threats. North Korea can't even feed it's own people, nevermind project it's power across the globe. And Iran has never in it's modern history, attacked any of it's neighbors, it has a few jets and a navy that basically controls the northern shore of the Persian Gulf. Iran is surrounded by hostile regimes not the least of which are countries we've recently invaded, destroyed and occupied.
            Of course they feel threatened.
            And the Bushies taught them the value of having a nuke. Korea had a wet firecracker nuke and didn't get attacked. Iraq had no WMDs and was Shock&Awed into oblivion.
            If there is one thing that I disagree with Hillary on it is her hawkishness, particularly in re: Iran.
            But look at us here: We're like an elephant terrified by a mouse. It's pathetic. Not a real good example of "Home of the Brave".
            What we ought to be doing is opening trade talks with both countries, sending food aid to Korea, telling Israel to STFU on the sabre-rattling, calming the Saudis and developing our own Alt.energy so we can get the h3ll out of the entire region.

            If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

            by CwV on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:44:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have extreme doubts that North Korea (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KenBee

              is the way it is because of us, and only because of us, or mainly because of us, or even significantly because of us.

              Dynastic personality cults don't normally end well.

              Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

              by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 01:01:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I wouldn't say that they are mainly (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                blue aardvark

                the way they are because of us, though we were instrumental in the partitioning that gave rise to that dynasty, if my memory of history serves.
                And we do a lot of barging around Asia, in support of Japan, "deterring" China, invading and destroying VietNam....
                So they have ample reason to fear us and our Asian allies.
                I thought a great opportunity was lost during BushCheney, Kim Jung Il and Laura Bush had about the same taste in pantsuits and I though it would be a real breakthrough if she could have taken him shopping in Dallas! A little Neiman-Marcus Diplomacy could have solved the problem.
                But the Bushies needed enemies so we got the Axis of Evil instead.

                If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

                by CwV on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 01:11:02 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  IIRC the original partitioning (0+ / 0-)

                  reflected approximately the positions of the US and USSR forces at the end of WWII. Just like happened in Europe.

                  The attempt to reunify in 1950 was, so far as I know, instigated by the elder Kim with Soviet backing.

                  Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

                  by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 02:24:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  how credible is that? After all I can remember (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        corvo, SilentBrook, blue aardvark

        the same scenarios being played out when Mao was in power.  Exactly how large is a N Korean nuke (and I have seen analyses arguing that they don't have such a critter) so it would be able to be detonated inside a cargo container or how effective would the N Korean AF be at mid air refueling? In short they seem to lack a credible delivery system.  Even if they had such a system, N Korea relies upon China to survive.  Would their Chinese sponsors let them launch a nuke against the US?

        •  How credible ? (0+ / 0-)
          In short they seem to lack a credible delivery system.
          Do you know how the centrafuses moved across the oceans ?

          Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

          by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:43:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  atomic bombs have to have centrifuges? (4+ / 0-)

            I thought those were for enriching the uranium to 20% or so and not for delivering warheads

            •  You didn't answer the question . (0+ / 0-)

              I did say they were used as a delivery device .

              I asked if you knew how they moved across the oceans ?
              Do you ? Or do you not ?
              If you already know , I'll not bother to tell you .
              If you don't then maybe I will .

              Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

              by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:47:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  plutonium also moves across oceans (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SilentBrook

                so do the components for ICBMs.  However a centrifuge  is not a delivery vehicle still and for that matter, biologicals also move across oceans.  Much easier to smuggle in and with as much impact given an opportunity

                •  I really didn't ask if a centrifuge could be used (0+ / 0-)

                  as a delivery vehicle . Never did , never would . So that is just a silly game on your part .

                  I did say they were used as a delivery device .
                  Oops , that should say did not .

                  I'm still asking the same question ,
                  do you know how the centrifuges moved across the oceans .
                  Simple question that really does have a simple answer .

                  I didn't ask about  , plutonium , ICBMs , biologicals or bullshit .

                  Anyway , if you are unwilling to answer my very basic straightforward question ...

                  Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

                  by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 11:28:56 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  There's an ocean between Pakistan and NK? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            corvo, trumpeter

            Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

            by blue aardvark on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 08:56:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do you remember the NK ship that was stopped (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              blue aardvark

              by the Spanish Navy in Dec of 2002??  Spain called in the US Navy because of what they found on the ship - components to help with the making of nukes.  The US let it go on its way, some place in the mid east.

            •  You are asking that ? (0+ / 0-)

              Is that a real question ?
              Or are you just playing games ?

              I'll play along ,
              if you wanted to ship something sensitive from Pakistan to North Korea , something you wanted others to not have access to ,
              then yes there is an ocean .

              Pakistan ,
              Arabian sea ,
              Strait of Malacca ,
              South China sea ,
              East China sea ,
              North Korea .

              Drop the name-calling MB 2/4/11 + Please try to use ratings properly! Kos 9/9/11

              by indycam on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:56:56 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Which is fine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      corvo, KenBee

      But yet I'm supposed to believe that Iran, who is much further from an actual weapon, is such an imminent threat that we need to go to war with them in the near future?

      If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!

      by Major Kong on Thu Feb 28, 2013 at 09:45:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site