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View Diary: Big Blizzard Thing #3 For DC? PHL? NYC? OMG! (77 comments)

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  •  Schwartz's Admonition (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat, weatherdude, Youffraita, jabney

    ...from my old friend Barry Schwartz, now retired from the Nat'l Weather Service, Schwartz's Admonition was how he first described the hype phenomenon when he was an undergraduate at Albany State (NY). In his words:

    S = So * exp (-gamma * t)

    So = amount of snow (or whatever) that would fall if no one hyped it S  = amount that actually falls (less than So) exp means So is multiplied by an exponential term -gamma * t gamma is the hype factor which is a complicated term, obviously and t is the amount of time that it is hyped. You remember it now? Thus, the more time and use of fancy meteorological terms you employ in your hype, the amount of snow you get falls off exponentially fast (the negative gamma affect). The equation works for any meteorological event.

    •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

      That's pretty true around here.  Snow is coming -- OMG, OH NOEZ, SNOWZ -- and the local TV stations hype it...and we get, like, three inches.

      Irony takes a worse beating from Republicans than Wile E. Coyote does from Acme. --Tara the Antisocial Social Worker

      by Youffraita on Fri Mar 01, 2013 at 10:34:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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