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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/6 (292 comments)

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  •  I agree (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, WisJohn, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    she will surely run stronger in a lot of areas than Obama did.  Will that result in her winning those states?  Probably not.  It might help down ballot, though.  I could see her running helping a candidate for AR-02 or AR-01.  If she runs in 2016, though, after that those areas probably revert to huge losses for the foreseeable future.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:15:37 PM PST

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    •  She'll run weaker than Obama in a lot of states (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen, MichaelNY

      too. Don't automatically assume that Hillary will get the same AA and youth turnout that Obama did. She doesn't have the same appeal to those groups.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:30:32 PM PST

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      •  that's also true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think particularly among young people, while I don't think they'll be viewing a Republican more favorably than her, there will be lower turnout.  Among African Americans probably lower turnout, by a little, but I think she'll have almost the same support.  And among Hispanics I expect her to do similarly, but they'll compose a larger share of the electorate.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 02:51:06 PM PST

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        •  I think she'll do significantly weaker among AAs. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And Hispanics will depend on how she runs her 2016 campaign and what happens with immigration.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 03:03:14 PM PST

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          •  of course you do (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sportsman885, MichaelNY

            I'm coming to the conclusion I can safely ignore your comments about her because they're all negative.  The Clintons have been popular among African Americans pretty much forever.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 03:18:00 PM PST

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            •  Yeah I am not a fan of her. But, there is also (0+ / 0-)

              a lot of rose-colored glasses views here about her who are conveniently forgetting how unpopular she was at the end of the 2008 primary with AAs and Bill wasn't doing too much better. We'll see what happens when she has to campaign again.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 05:48:49 PM PST

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          •  I'd say define significantly (8+ / 0-)

            Gore got 90%, Kerry got 88%, Obama got 95% the first time (and then 93% last year).  I'd expect Hillary Clinton to at least break 90%, assuming she doesn't get beaten badly in the general election.  Assuming a more or less close election, I could see her getting 91-92% with African-Americans.

            A lot has been written about how the GOP has turned off Latino voters, but for some reason too many people disregard a similar phenomenon among African-Americans.  "Oh, they just voted for Obama because he's black".  While there is certainly an element of racial affinity for the president, I think it's undeniable that today's Republican Party is much more hostile to African-American interests than it was a decade ago.  I don't see Republicans getting back up into double digits with them again, unless things seriously change.

            Obama has certainly done wonders for African-American turnout, but I think this is entirely replicable in the future.  People who have voted recently are much more likely to vote again.  Just getting people registered and voting makes it more likely that future candidates can reach them and turn them out again.

          •  Doesn't she have a very strong following (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            among the Hispanic community at large?

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 04:52:33 PM PST

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            •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              She'd have potential to get 80% of the Hispanic vote, given her unique appeal to Hispanics.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 05:01:19 PM PST

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              •  That will depend on what happens with immigration (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                though and if she's decided if she is for or against driver's licenses for undocumented workers.  

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 05:50:07 PM PST

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                •  I have a hard time believing (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  That Republicans will nominate anyone who can appeal to Hispanics, even if something gets done on immigration. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio are all apostates and I don't think any of them will make it through the nominating process.

                  Plus, even if a) immigration reform is achieved and b) Republicans nominate someone Hispanic-friendly, what incentive is there for Hispanics to vote for a party that just 4 years ago was calling the undocumented (who undoubtedly include friends of family) "illegals"? There is no reason they'll abandon the Democratic party.

                  25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 10:09:13 PM PST

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                •  You know that Hillary spent her formative years (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, James Allen

                  Working with organizations like LULAC in south Texas registering Hispanics?

                  It really doesn't matter who Republicans nominate, Hillary will destroy them with Hispanics to a degree never seen before if only because she'll be able to improve substantially on Democratic scores with the group in Texas (and bring them in line with other southwestern Hispanics).

                  If Republicans, like they're likely to do, nominate an anti-Hispanic bigot again, Hillary will easily get 75% with a good chance at getting over 80%.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 01:45:06 AM PST

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