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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/6 (292 comments)

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  •  I'd say define significantly (8+ / 0-)

    Gore got 90%, Kerry got 88%, Obama got 95% the first time (and then 93% last year).  I'd expect Hillary Clinton to at least break 90%, assuming she doesn't get beaten badly in the general election.  Assuming a more or less close election, I could see her getting 91-92% with African-Americans.

    A lot has been written about how the GOP has turned off Latino voters, but for some reason too many people disregard a similar phenomenon among African-Americans.  "Oh, they just voted for Obama because he's black".  While there is certainly an element of racial affinity for the president, I think it's undeniable that today's Republican Party is much more hostile to African-American interests than it was a decade ago.  I don't see Republicans getting back up into double digits with them again, unless things seriously change.

    Obama has certainly done wonders for African-American turnout, but I think this is entirely replicable in the future.  People who have voted recently are much more likely to vote again.  Just getting people registered and voting makes it more likely that future candidates can reach them and turn them out again.

    •  People also forget (7+ / 0-)

      That African American turnout has been long a long-term increase that, yes, was probably bumped a bit by Obama, but that does not necessarily mean that AA turnout will decrease. In all likelihood, it will stay flat for 2016 and thereafter given that it is now about even with white turnout.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 03:43:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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