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View Diary: Why the East Coast Snow was (and might be) so Deep: Explained by One Figure (69 comments)

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  •  It's a very tricky call, but that sounds right (6+ / 0-)

    The rain snow line is so hard to get down to the last 25 miles, but it makes a huge difference from DC to Boston.

    Models have been very inconsistent, so stay tuned.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 05:21:23 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  The Eurp seems like an outlier here (5+ / 0-)

      but you gotta respect its accuracy, still other models seem bullish on the storm getting up to NYC; reminds me of the 2/6/10 storm with its insanse cutoffs. And, we might not be done with snow yet; March is coming in cold this year. We really don't need the coastal pounding in NJ and it would be better for us if the winds stay NE and we get more snow than rain; I know most people hate snow in NJ ( why do they stay here? It snows, newsflash) but really an easterly wind, which would gaurantee rain, would seriously wreck the coast even more.

      •  This storm will have big waves & coastal damage (8+ / 0-)

        All the models have a huge fetch. It isn't as huge a fetch as Sandy's but there will be a big easterly swell pounding New Jersey for days.

        Notice the big blocking high over eastern Canada. This storm will move slowly so the shoreline will get pounded for a long time.

        look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

        by FishOutofWater on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 05:47:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  well, the difference between very bad and (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          radical simplicity, radarlady, argomd

          well, even worse....timing matters too, if the worst of the storm doesn't strike during high tide that would be great. But a long duration event would mean at least some of the storm would be at the highest tides...didn't even look at the moon cycles, if we are not on a moon tide it wouldn't be as bad. SREFS are indicating more northern involvement, but history argues against it, as March storms in DC, few and far between , have not delivered in NYC. BUt all bets are off these days, I mean who ever heard of damaging snow in October or 13 inches in November? So anything is on the table, and climo, form my understanding, does argue for the storm coming further north, the block and confluence not being as strong according to some models, which is what kept the 2/6/10 blizzard from moving north of Sandy hook. Interestingly, there was another blizzard a few days alter, which also hit DC and Balt hard and madeit up to NYC, and that was really unprecedented too; big storms should not follow back to back. We are in weird times, no doubt. I have used my generator 3 times since Irene; in the prior 50 years i had never needed one, in the same neighborhood!

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