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View Diary: Michigan Sen. Carl Levin will not seek a seventh term (141 comments)

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  •  Presumptuous (3+ / 0-)

    I think it's presumptuous to think that Amash would win the GOP primary, here.  I don't even see him as the frontrunner.  He'd be running an insurgent campaign from the start, because he does not have a lot of good relationships with Michigan's congressional delegation.

    Like a lot of libertarians - and it shows how well known he is, here - he's more popular outside his state than within it.  Libertarians have a wide base, but it's shallow as hell, and Michigan isn't exactly fertile ground for third-party-lite candidacies like it would, say, somewhere in the West.  He's even an odd duck in his area of the state (West Michigan), the rest of metropolitan grand rapids along the lake is actually really deeply socially conservative, and his stuff would play better with Republicans in Southeast Michigan, but they like establishment, money types...from Southeast Michigan.  

    The division between West and Southeast Michigan for the state GOP is a major factor that often gets overlooked as to why Republicans do poorly in senate elections here in the state.  You know, everyone outside the state seems to be convinced that "Yellow Girl" doomed Pete Hoekstra, but he'd have still been beaten by at least tens points, regardless, because folks in Southeast Michigan either didn't know him or didn't trust him.  It's why Debbie beat Bouchard (from Southeast Michigan) by nearly the exact same percentage margin as she beat Hoekstra: because they didn't really know him or trust him in West Michigan.

    •  Also, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      even if he won the primary, I think Amash would be our Akin.  I think the more people got to know him, the less they'd like him.

      The few people I know who've met him have all pretty much said he's a douchebag.

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