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View Diary: Renters make good Democrats, and other demographic observations (129 comments)

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  •  We need to get this to big-shots who target races (5+ / 0-)

    I used to be an intern at the DNC and the data they used to target races is not this advanced.  At least it wasn't when I was there.

    If we could get some of the top-ranking donors and strategists to read this article, it might make a real difference to the 2014.  Everybody send links from this article to anyone u can think of who is active in the democratic party!

    It's crazy NOT to complain to the Dems when they surrender. Why are we on this site, if not to influence policy? (202-456-1111 White House)

    by WanderMan on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 02:40:23 PM PDT

    •  Defeats the purpose (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      This is more of a poli-sci "Why do people vote the way they do" deal than a "How can we predict which districts are trending our way or which districts can we win?". There are much much better ways to answer those questions (Presidential vote results and party registration trends), and the DNC has that data, and much much more, at their disposal.

      The actual issue behind resource allocation isn't really a lack of smart guys at the party knowing where to spend the money, it's all political. Politicians in safe seats, who generally tend to be the ones collecting the money, are irrationally afraid of losing their seats, which is why giant sums of money were spent in New York in 2010 instead of swing seats.

      •  There *are* a lot of swing districts in New York (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        davidshor, Odysseus, MichaelNY

        In 2010, 6 seats changed between parties (we lost all of them), and there were an additional 4 seats where the results were within 10 points.

        In 2012, there were 3 seats where the party changed, and an additional 5 races were within 10 points.

        Your first point is exactly correct, but your second point misses that a lot of swing districts happen to fall in safe states.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 03:56:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was talking about the Schumer race (0+ / 0-)

          Schumer specifically spent a ton of money on ads for Chuck Schumer in the expensive New York Media market. That's what I was complaining about.

          On the congressional side, you see a lot of politicians in D+8 or D+10 seats who still run major campaigns even though that doesn't make sense at all if you're trying to maximize your chance of controlling the chamber.

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