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View Diary: Renters make good Democrats, and other demographic observations (129 comments)

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  •  That's a pretty bad idea (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Englishlefty

    The issue is that some people are much much more responsive to GOTV door knocks than others, and the main predictors of GOTV impact are variables that don't geographically segregate well (Mostly voting history). The people who cut GOTV lists, at least in high level races, use sophisticated modeling to make sure you talk to those people and not waste your time with the vast majority of people for whom door knocks don't accomplish much.

    Also, you also have the issue that 1) Tons of people you meet aren't going to be registered to vote (Less of an issue in NH and WI because of same day reg), and 2)Unless you're canvassing a black neighborhood or maybe a UW dorm room, at least 30% of the people you talk to in a blind knock are going to be Republicans. A standard OFA GOTV list, on the other hand, would probably be closer to 5% Republican.

    •  Not a bad idea (3+ / 0-)

      Not an efficient idea necessarily, but not bad. Dealing with stats and high probability door knocks, you are going to leave a lot of potential votes out there. If OFA etc are hitting the high percentage targets, random knocks like this helps fill in the gaps.

      Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

      by grubber on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 04:03:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  unless you're in precincts that are 80-90% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Democratic.  Then you might have 5-10% being Republicans.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 05:50:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  there are less than 25% registered republicans (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59

      in my city (college town in nor cal), and the overwhelming majority of them are older affluent homeowners living in the swanky neighborhood near the golf course, not apartment-dwellers. the inefficiencies are not going to be republicans, they're going to be foreign grad students, in my experience.

      you're assuming the choice is between swing state-grade OfA organizing and doing this, when more practically speaking, it's between doing this and doing something else. OfA in safe dem like this is generally focused on GOTV for out of state or out of town races, california is a colony for dem political organizing and donations, by and large.

      some times it matters for local races or state races as well.

      •  You should still have lists (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Catalyst worked with a bunch of Democratic progressive groups and the congressional caucus, so your local field office still should have had some lists.

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