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View Diary: What Minnesota's refusal to ban same-sex marriage tells us about the chances they'll legalize it (79 comments)

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  •  I made some charts for this too! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, CF of Aus, Skaje

    Never got around to writing them up.  Size is candidate margin of victory.  I think I wanted to add incumbency.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:46:27 AM PDT

    •  I think candidate margin is important b/c (0+ / 0-)

      it suggests how much "room for error" a candidate has.  And how did Jeremy Miller do so well in Obama-voting Senate District 28?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:53:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Senator Miller (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, bumiputera, Ed Tracey, Odysseus

        He is a young, energetic, likable guy that campaigns incessantly. Also it helps that he is not an ideological purist or loudmouth.

        •  With his large margin of victory and (0+ / 0-)

          Yes on 1 narrowly winning his district, would he be a likely vote against gay marriage?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:13:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Unlikely (0+ / 0-)

            But if there are defections within the Republican caucus in the senate (I doubt this happens, and it would only happen if it is publicly known that it will pass regardless) I could see him being the 3rd or 4th defection. But the odds of this are small.

      •  Miller's family (7+ / 0-)

        Miller's father was also a very popular mayor of Winona, which has 3/8ths of the district's population. His family also owns a operates a very well known company in Winona. And like OGGoldy said, he works hard and isn't an idealogue.

        Our candidate wasn't the strongest either (he also looked a bit like a Hobbit). I had worked a bit with an organization trying to recruit a candidate in that seat, and all of our top prospects passed on running.

        And the district has a history of electing Republicans. We held the seat from 06-10, but it was Republican before that. SE MN is trending our way, but it still has ancestral independent and Republican tendencies.

        •  So he was basically like (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus

          the Paul Rudd character who Leslie Knope runs against on "Parks and Recreation"?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:15:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  But great job, especially on the precinct maps. (0+ / 0-)

      I don't know how to do that GIS stuff.  Or were you just very patient?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:56:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, and hopefully (0+ / 0-)

      I was right when I made them.  Don't really have time to re-check the numbers now.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:57:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nice work (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      I like the use of bubbles.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 02:28:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

        The handy thing here is that the Presidential election and the Amendment election are just uncorrelated enough that the bubbles don't overlap much.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 03:28:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The two elections really did have (0+ / 0-)

          nothing to do with each other.  Same with amendment 2 when it came to requiring photo ID to vote.  That one failed because the Twin Cities and Greater MN teamed up to curb-stomp the shit out of it, while the marriage amendment was the Twin Cities plus the suburbs.  And the Presidential follows an even less black/white voting pattern in Minnesota.

          Really can't help but wonder what other type of election ballot has the ability to show these differences.  Wonder if maybe it's just Minnesotans being highly educated voters and voting exactly how one would logically expect.

          •  Not "nothing". (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            The correlation is fairly high, as jeffmd says.  But many simultaneous elections are correlated far beyond even that.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:24:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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