Skip to main content

View Diary: What Minnesota's refusal to ban same-sex marriage tells us about the chances they'll legalize it (79 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  What I've been hearing (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy, askew, sfbob, MichaelNY

    From what I know talking with the people I know at the legislature and my friends on Minnesotans United, the votes are there in the Senate, the House is the work in progress but they feel pretty good about it. I had a conversation last week with a House employee who informed me of at least three DFLers in high "Yes on 1" districts that will vote yes (aside from Melin and Metsa who are co-sponsors). Also, the whole Range delegation should be Yes votes (aside from maybe Dill) despite districts voting Yes on 1.

    •  Dill is a firm no (8+ / 0-)

      Trust me on that one. The Range delegation tends to be more liberal than their constituencies, and the constituencies are reflexively Democratic. The only one I could see it ultimately hurting, unfortunately, is Anzelc. But his district is at beat 50/50 Range territory as it is after redistricting. The Cass precincts are absolutely brutal.

       Also, I know you know this, but others might not and it is important in this discussion. Metsa and Melin are both in their 20s. This is the age group most likely to support it nationally. Given the political leanings of their districts they will be fine, especially Melin. Although they will certainly tale some flak back home, it won't be enough to put them in danger. Since Bakk has come out in favor of it, it provided cover for all the rest of them. The unquestioned backroom leader of the Iron Range DFL Tom Rukavina "allegedly" having a group powwow with then may have swayed the minds of a couple wary Range legislators.

      I never doubted hat bloc would come on board. Its the farmland Democrats that won't come over. My connections are much weaker in that part of the state, so other than the obvious never-gonna-happen ones, I have little insight. I trust that you know what you're talking about if you're doing a whip count on the senate. I personally have a ceiling of 34 possible Yes senators, and I can't imagine any of my No senators column is squishy on it. Unless someone got to the ear of somrone like Senjem and he was able to corral a couple surprising Republican votes, this is a razor's edge under the best of circumstances.

      •  Not from what I've heard (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ER Doc, Christopher Walker

        I thought Dill was a firm no until a conversation I had last week. I personally think he is a no, but I was told he is a very possible yes. Anzelc is the one it would hurt, but I'm pretty confident that he's a yes vote from what I've heard. Oh, and I did hear that Tomassoni is up in the air, forgot about that one.

        I'd be interested in which farmlanders you see as nos. Stumpf and Koenen for sure. Skoe and Eken and questionable. Possibly Sparks (though his district is democratic enough to handle it). I believe that Schmit and Dahle will both vote yes, even though they are vulnerable. Jensen is a yes. Right after the election when MN United had the rally at the capitol, she was there for it.

      •  District 3A (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ER Doc

        Looking at the tally on this, the only strong "no" area on the amendment (after counting blank ballots as votes against the amendment) was in Cook County, and the "no" percentage in Cook County was stronger than the state as a whole.

        The portions of St. Louis and Koochiching counties in 3A both voted "yes" on the amendment; the part of St. Louis County in this district is the far northern portion including Ely but excluding the Range cities such as Hibbing and Virginia.

        The 3B portion of Lake County (around Two Harbors) voted "no" in rough proportion to the state as a whole.

        The ballot box must NEVER be used as a tool of oppression.

        by vikingrob on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 04:09:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site