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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/15 (220 comments)

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  •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

    we're almost at the point where there really aren't any Bobby Bright / Ben Nelson types left in Congress...the Democrats that are so far right that they often pass the more moderate Republicans in voting.

    If we do manage to get up to 2008 numbers again in the House, it almost certainly won't be with so many conservadems as that session.  It would almost certainly be a majority built on massive gains in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and New York, and as such has to wait until the next round of redistricting at the earliest.

    But I don't see us picking up the kinds of southern seats we took in 2006-2008 with Blue Dogs again.

    •  There are a few seats that I can see us picking up (4+ / 0-)

      That would have conservative Democrats:

      AR-1, 2, and 4, FL-2, the assortment of usual IN seats, KS-3, KY-6, the other two WV seats, MN-6 for a one term rental, NE-2, MT/ND/SD, NM-2, NC-9, OH-6, PA-12, TX-27, and probably a few others.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Mar 15, 2013 at 12:53:11 PM PDT

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      •  Definitely some possibilities in that list (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        but I think many of those are definitely trending the wrong way, and will be tough to get back, even in a good year for us.  I think Arkansas in particular will continue to trend Republican, even after Obama, and we'll be lucky if we can even compete in AR-02 in the future.  I also worry about our long-term prospects in Indiana...the map is pretty bad for us, and IN-02 is the only one I see us getting back in a wave year.  I'm also predictably pessimistic on the WV seats, KY-06, OH-06, and PA-12 for the continuing problems we are having in Appalachia.

        I do like our long-term chances in FL-02, KS-03, and NE-02 though.  Those districts seem like they would be ready to support Blue Dogs Dems.  And I agree, one day Bachmann will simply get to be too much for that district to handle, and we'll get it for two years.

        •  Fayette and Leon counties (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, KingofSpades

          in FL-02 and KY-06 are growing disproportionately.  I want strong recruits in both.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Mar 15, 2013 at 01:35:11 PM PDT

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