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  •  well "everything's worse" is closer than deniers (1+ / 0-)
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    Steve Canella

    there are indeed a handful of scientists who feel that the lower end of the estimated range is right, most of them modelers (as was I in the day).  However, as noted important aspects, especially melting and temperature are happening faster than espected initially.  Of course, each AR accounts for the errors previous.

    Then of course, there's the political risk, in that emissions are following the upper end of the range, so predictions should follow.

    Those who claim the IPCC is "covering up" do start with a kernel of truth that arises from the nature of the organization. Because it is a consensus based model of review, the conclusions are necessarily conservative, rather than out at the cutting edge of knowledge.  Now, if the cutting edge is consistent with better supported conclusions, that shouldn't create a bias.  However, what the IPCC underplays is the degree of certainty, rather than the magnitude of the predicted increases.  Long story short, I pay attention to the IPCC and ignore the journalists who report, since they typcally don't have the scientific training to know what they are talking about.

    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

    by Mindful Nature on Wed Mar 13, 2013 at 09:40:46 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Not quite, M.N. (0+ / 0-)

      "However, as noted important aspects, especially melting and temperature are happening faster than espected initially."

      No, again, temperature actually isn't rising faster than certain predictions. Did you read the article?

      "Then of course, there's the political risk, in that emissions are following the upper end of the range, so predictions should follow."

      "Because it is a consensus based model of review, the conclusions are necessarily conservative, rather than out at the cutting edge of knowledge."

      That may be true to an extent.

      "However, what the IPCC underplays is the degree of certainty, rather than the magnitude of the predicted increases."

      This, too, may indeed have some truth to it. However, though, I'd like to point out that there is likely a good reason for this; while there have indeed been some unfortunate rolls of the climate dice, especially in regards to Arctic ice melt, there are also some things which haven't happened as fast as we thought they would.

      "I pay attention to the IPCC and ignore the journalists who report, since they typcally don't have the scientific training to know what they are talking about."

      Sadly, that is often true. It's not just journalists, either, though.....

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