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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: How can Tom Corbett recover from numbers like this? (12 comments)

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  •  I wouldn't count PA Gov Corbett out quite yet (0+ / 0-)

    The PA economy should, as with the nation generally, continue to improve over the 20 months until the Nov 2014 election.  That will help tax receipts.  It should marginally help the incumbent Governor.

    Takes someone to beat someone.  We don't know who will be the Dem Gov nominee.  Several of the leading Dems have long records that will be handy for oppo research and negative attack ads.  Voters could end up not liking either candidate but GOP and independent voters could "hold their noses" and opt for the devil they know - Corbett.

    Corbett will run on his record of not raising taxes. He promised to do that in his 2010 campaign and will be able to say if reelected he will again not raise taxes.  Dems cannot and won't make the same pledge (not to raise taxes), and voters in still tough economic times likely won't want to risk higher taxes.

    The Democratic vote in Dem-heavy Philadelphia plummets during off-year elections.  The Philadelphia total vote in 2012 was 690,327 and in 2008 was 717,329.  In off-year elections (vote for Governor but not for President), the Philadelphia total vote was only 422,783 in 2010 and 428,841 in 2006 (a year in which popular former Phila Mayor Ed Rendell was the Dem candidate for Governor and his organization pulled out all stops and pumped up the vote in Philadelphia).

    I would not count out Gov Corbett for reelection, so yes, he could possibly still turn things around in the next 20 months.

     

    •  I'm with David, odds against Corbett (0+ / 0-)

      I'm uneasy with the fact it's only March 2013 and things really do often change in such a long timeframe, but the way David posed the question, no I wouldn't bet on Corbett recovering enough to win reelection.

      If I had to bet my life savings on Corbett's fate, I'd bet on him losing.  His situation just doesn't look so easily reversible.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 14, 2013 at 10:25:24 AM PDT

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    •  I won't count Corbett out (0+ / 0-)

      UNLESS AG Kathleen Kane comes up with some good info on how Corbett dragged his feet in the handling of the Sandusky case.... in which case, bring out the popcorn.

      The more I'm around people, the more I like my cats

      by southpaw2015 on Thu Mar 14, 2013 at 11:18:04 AM PDT

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