Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/19 (153 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  On parties winning 3 presidential terms in a row (6+ / 0-)

    Here are the results when parties have tried to win a third presidential term in a row since the 1920s:

    2008: lost by 7%
    2000: "won" by 0.5%
    1988: won by 8%
    1976: lost by 2%
    1968: lost by 0.7%
    1960: lost by 0.2%
    1940: won by 10%
    1928: won by 17%

    That's 3 big wins for the incumbent party, 3 very close elections, one narrow loss, and 1 McCain. Exclude the pre-war elections if you like, and it's 1 win, 1 loss, and 3 ties. Or add in Dem attempts at 4th, 5th, and 6th terms in a row from 1944-1952, and it becomes 5 wins, 2 losses, and 3 ties.

    Considering how atrocious Bush was as president and how bad the economy was in November 2008, and considering 1976 was the post-Watergate election, it seems to me that if anything the incumbent party ought to be the presumed favorite to win a third consecutive term, all else being equal.

    •  Two of those "very big" wins are from before WWII (0+ / 0-)

      It's not exactly analogous.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 09:52:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  with a strong candidate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, Skaje

      we'd be at 50-50 or better, looks like.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 11:16:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Still (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8, JBraden, itskevin

        prepare yourself for plenty of articles in 2015 pointing out how "Democrats have not won three elections in a row since FDR/Truman!"  That fact somehow exerts a magical force on the current election, twisting people's minds, and compelling them to vote Republican so as not to disturb history (what little history there is).

        Remember, Missouri always picks the winner. :P

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site