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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/20 (239 comments)

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  •  PPP Polltopia (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Colorado
    Hawaii
    Idaho
    Ohio
    SC-01 special election

    I voted for Hawaii, as the last weeks. Colorado seems also a good option for me. And Idaho (I always tell that every state must have some poll).

    Sad that PPP down the number of polls by week to only one.

    •  Looks like it'll be the special (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, redrelic17, DCCyclone

      Good.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:20:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you have hope of this race becoming (0+ / 0-)

        competitive?

        The district has a PVI between GA-12 and NC-07, closer to the last.

        •  I don't expect it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          But you never know.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:31:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, some poll is always good (0+ / 0-)

            But still, having better places to choose...

            I must recognize that my hope and my patience is underwater these days. Waiting and waiting some results that never see (begining by the results of Nassau County to end with the Press-by-CD results).

            •  Not when those races are far in the distance (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, James Allen

              Righties are worried about Sanford being the nominee.

              http://www.nationalreview.com/...

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:39:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  At this point (0+ / 0-)

                I'm more curious about other results than about SC-01. Some weeks later I would like a poll about this district, but still it can be too early. SC-01 is a massive red district that I see very very difficult to win. And if the things go bad for the Republicans in this race, an early poll only would help them, advising them early about how they need to energize their base.

                A mix of results too delayed (Press by CD), to have not still the PVIs for all the constituencies, polls that never come, missed good chances like the last PPP poll for MI, the unpolled statewide race in Wisconsin, the last poll for HI without D vs R matchs or the last PA and FL polls without a look at the senate race in 2016, plus PPP reducing the number of polls, killed my hope and patience the last weeks.

        •  Well considering that when PPP asked about (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, itskevin, James Allen, jncca

          Mark Sanford in their December poll he was at an atrocious 30/53, I'd have to imagine he's underwater in this district too, though not by that much since it's slightly to the right of the state and contains his base.

          Still, I bet a Colbert-Busch/Sanford match up is Lean R at the very worst for us, especially since I can't imagine conservatives will be thrilled to go vote in a special election for a guy they so obviously loathe.

          •  Leans R at least (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Sanford just took 20,000 votes to just 14,000 for Colbert Busch. Now, you could argue his primary was competitive and hers wasn't but you would still expect most other Republicans to vote for him anyway. Look at Scott DesJarlais.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:52:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

              16,000 in the Democratic primary.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:53:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The difference though is that was a presidential (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, James Allen, JBraden

              so those voters were already in the voting booth when they voted for DesJarlais. This special election is the only thing that will be on the ballot, so those Republican voters who voted non-Sanford in the primary would specifically have to come out just to vote for him. The other side of that coin is that the Democratic primary was totally uncompetitive, so we'll have a lot of Dem voters in the general who didn't vote in the Dem primary.

              It wouldn't surprise me at all to see PPP's poll showing something like Colbert-Busch 35, Sanford 39 which with his name rec being likely twice hers if not more probably results in a loss in a special election.

              •  Vitter too (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                abgin

                I get the feeling these southern conservative voters hate Democrats more than they dislike the peccadilloes of their Republican pols. But I agree it could get somewhat competitive.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:14:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  this (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, JGibson, JBraden

                Assuming Sanford wins the runoff, the group that is likely to be most enthusiastic about this election will be the anybody-but-Sanford bloc. I would not be surprised if enough of those people turn out to put the Dem over the top.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:17:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Excellent Points (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf

                One thing to keep in mind is, there is no party registration in SC, so Dems and Indys could vote in the only real primary there was, the GOP one.  

                They could either vote for Sanford because he would be the most likely to beat in the general, or they might vote for one of the others, because they wanted the least-offensive alternative, if the D candidate didn't win.

                The Democratic primary got ZERO attention., so why not at least have a say in the matter?

                The DCCC needs to be doing ground work NOW to target this race.  It is winnable , IMO.  Besides, what have you got to lose?  The Dems HAVE to make a run in GOP strongholds to have any chance of taking control in 2014 or beyond.  Given the gerrymandered advantage the GOP has right now.   This makes for a good trial run.  It will help Sheheen in 2014 too, if he runs for Gov again, which is very likely,

                If you still lose, you can always say the demographics were the cuplprit, which would be the truth.  

                GET BUSY ON WINNING THIS ONE DCCC!!!

    •  I went with Ohio on the off chance that they do 2 (0+ / 0-)

      but I'm sure that SC-01 will win and that seems like a pretty good option too.

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