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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/20 (239 comments)

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  •  If Republicans nominate a crazy person (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, itskevin, dufffbeer

    I think that Barrow would be the ideal candidate to take this on. Very similar to the scenario that played out in Indiana last year.

    •  Yes but think about it this way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GloFish, HoosierD42, lordpet8

      Had Donnelly run for reelection he almost certainly would have won thanks to incumbency given how close Mullen kept it last year.

      Do you think someone like Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill wouln't have similarly defeated Mourdock? I don't see why they wouldn't have.

      Obviously our bench is weaker in Georgia, but we clearly have other people who could run in the scenario that Broun is the nominee without dooming us to lose a house seat. While Barrow is certainly much more popular than generic D in his district, it's a fairly small proportion of the state overall and he's simply going to turn out to be Generic Conservadem should he run statewide. The main difference likely being Barrow's stronger initial fundraising, but that won't matter if Broun is the nominee and that's the only way we're winning here anyway.

      Of course, if we're going to be all defeatist and not do what it takes to flip the house with a working majority this decade, then I'm fine with Barrow running for senate since he is most likely our strongest candidate. His house seat should become winnable in 2022 if we're lucky enough to get a court-drawn map (though Woodall would get screwed over hardcore).

      •  Ellsworth or Hill MAY have won (0+ / 0-)

        Although remember, Donnelly didn't exactly romp in that election, and he won by his margins in northern Indiana. Both Hill and Ellsworth would likely not have had this strength. Also, both Hill and Ellsworth lost in 2010 (with Ellsworth losing statewide, and Hill losing his incumbent district, both by double digits) , which is an indicator they were not as strong of candidates in general, as Donnelly hung on during the Red Wave.

        •  Donnelly had a significantly bluer district though (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, Skaje, HoosierD42, jncca, James Allen

          It gave Obama 54% of the vote while the 8th was just 47% and the 9th 49%.

          I think he won by a large enough margin of 6% that both Ellsworth and Hill likely would have won too. Their defeats were due to the 2010 wave more than them being weaker relative to Donnelly. Both would have also run stronger in southern Indiana which makes up for not running as strongly in the north. Simply put, we won that election because of Richard Mourdock, and I don't think a credible Dem nominee would have lost.

          •  Agreed on all counts (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, Stephen Wolf

            I think Ellsworth or Hill would have trashed Mourdock by the same margin Donnelly did, plus or minus a couple percent.

            Donnelly simply offered himself up as a credible alternative, and Indiana flocked to him after being horrified by Mourdock.  Really a race where the Republican defeated themself...not to discount the good race that Donnelly ran, just that any other prominent Indiana Democrat could have done that too.

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