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View Diary: I need your economic prediction for the next 20 years (38 comments)

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  •  "Worse situations", but before the internet (1+ / 0-)
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    Roger Fox

    One of the biggest changes is the internet and cell phones, which have connected the globe in a way that has never been seen before.

    The 1 billion people in India and China now release how much better the US has it than they do.  That's 2 billion people against .3 billion, a factor of 6 times as many people competing for jobs and natural resources.

    With globalization and the internet, the US standard of living is not sustainable, nor indeed that of most of the western world.  In 20 years, we will either have a de facto apartheid in this country with the 1% owning everything and the rest of us working for a pittance for them, or indeed the poor will rise up as things get worse and more wealth and resources move to the developing world.

    I predict US growth for the next 20 years will be 1% at best, and the benefit of that growth will accrue fully to the 1%.

    Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

    by absdoggy on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 10:41:53 AM PDT

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    •  And what exactly these 2 bln people are going to (0+ / 0-)

      do about it that they are not doing already? What do you mean by 'competing for jobs'? Is this the same crap theory that the number of jobs in the world is somehow fixed?

      Sure, income disparity between developed and developing world will decrease. It's been decreasing for decades now. Competition for resources is also an issue and it's probably the most serious one.

      •  They are doing it, that's my point (1+ / 0-)
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        FG

        Here in the US, our GINI index has gone up to 46, maybe even higher by this point.  As countless diaries have shown, all of the productivity gains have gone to the top, and a full 80% of all income and wealth gains have gone to the top 5% in the past 30 years. In the last 5, it's even worse, the bottom 80% has lost ground, while the top 1% has seen it's income go up 12%.

        The 2 billion people in China and India have, by way of globalization and electronics/computer technology, become part of the world's labor pool.  Here in the US, we had no competition back in the 1950s and 1960s.  Then in the 1970s the Japanese came along, then Eastern Europe, then China, then India, etc. Over 2 billion people have been added to the world's labor supply in the past 25 years, which has devalued American labor across broad swaths of jobs.

        Competition for resources will become more extreme as time goes on, and it is the middle class and the poor of the US that will lose out.

        Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

        by absdoggy on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 05:48:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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