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View Diary: Yep. Fox's Bill O'Reilly, Traditional Marriage Advocate, Recently Got a Nasty Divorce. (206 comments)

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  •  Failure Percentage... (17+ / 0-)

    ...I seem to recall that the stat was "1 in 3" marriages would fail back in the mid-seventies... that would be a move from 33% to over 50% in 30ish years.

    A common Science Fiction trope is the fixed term marriage -- a couple (or larger group) would commit to 1, 5 or 10 year "contracts", with the terms of dissolution spelt out in advance (basically a built-in pre-nup). I suspect that the stats will continue to get "worse" until someone realizes that a single marriage per lifetime is about as prevalent as a single JOB for one's entire life.

    After all, currently the criteria for marriage "success" appears to be that both parties were together when one died. :P


    •  In some ways, the two are more similar than (4+ / 0-)

      many people would like to admit.

    •  there is a book (19+ / 0-)

      called "How to Lie with Statistics."  In it the 50% quote is debunked because it is commonly used to reflect all marriages, not just new marriages.  I recommend you ask your local library to find it.  It also shows how storks nesting in chimneys correlates to countries with high birth rates and other humorous debunking.  Really quite enlightening and useful in debates.

      Poverty is an anomaly to rich people. It is very difficult to make out why people who want dinner do not ring the bell.--W. Bagehot

      by sow hat on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 07:02:34 PM PDT

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    •  I don't think it's changed (21+ / 0-)

      because I think you are talking about two different statistics. They've both been around for a while, and they get confused. They are these:

      50% of all marriages end up in divorce.
      33% of all people who get married will get divorced.

      How can this be?

      The 50% includes all marriages. That number is skewed by people that get multiple divorces. In other words, it counts Liz Taylor seven times. (Is it 7 or 8? :) You get my point.) The 33% only counts her once. And people with one divorce, the chances of subsequent marriages ending in divorce skyrocket.

      So, only 33% of first marriages actually end in divorce. The 50% number is skewed by the serial divorcers. Again, the 33% counts my parents (no divorces) and Liz Taylor (7) once each. The 50% counts my parents once, but Taylor 7 times. That's the difference.

      (There is no value judgement inherent in this--I'm divorced :)).

      "Maybe: it's a vicious little word that could slay me"--Sara Bareilles

      by ChurchofBruce on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 08:21:22 PM PDT

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      •  2/3 of people don't divorce -- remarkable! :-) (4+ / 0-)

        The cycle has spun so far for so long (50 years?), that among progressives we now seem to have a problem accepting that happy, monogamous, heterosexual marriage is a great thing, and a wonderful environment in which to raise children ("not that there's anything wrong with other environments" per the de rigeur disclaimer).

        There are many reasons why Bill O'Reilley's infidelity, sexual harassment of one of his employees (per the "loofah" saga), and general boorishness are issues of public concern. These include his hypocrisy, his bullying of others, his enforcement of a conformity that he can't live up to, etc.

        I think one of the reasons the recent diary about the death of a Jewish family friend reached the Rec list here, is its happy portrayal of two lifelong marriages. We so seldom celebrate 'traditional marriage' and 'family values' here among progressive circles; indeed, the phrase 'traditional' is so often mocked. (Yes, I understand the reasons for this, please don't condescend.) A real sign of maturity and our own real acceptance of (what were once called) 'alternative' lifestyles will be when we celebrate 'tradition' with equal praise and enthusiasm.

        It's precisely because Bill O'Reilly, and Rush Limbaugh (divorced three times), and Newt Gingrich (divorced twice), et al. do not promote family values, despite their bullying-rhetoric, that their personal lives are fair game for critique.

      •  I also think that number is derived from (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paul1a, JBL55

        comparing apples and oranges. That is, say there are 100 marriages in a year, and 50 divorces. So 50% of marriages end in divorce! I've often seen articles do that. Of course, they aren't the same marriages! The stats have to include "accumulated" marriages from years past, that is, all people who are married.

        Friends don't let friends vote Republican.

        by OhioNatureMom on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 03:56:31 AM PDT

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    •  Isn't that called a handfasting which is often (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      renewed each year?

      You have watched Faux News, now lose 2d10 SAN.

      by Throw The Bums Out on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 10:56:19 PM PDT

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