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View Diary: New Mexico and Nevada Democratic Gerrymanders (6 comments)

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  •  The last time NM did redistricting, there was (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, DanC, James Allen

    a suggestion to cut the state vertically. Being from Las Cruces, I was definitely for it. I'm not sure why it didn't happen. We just have to make sure that we don't destroy our hold in the Albuquerque area. IIRC, Torrance Co (south or southeast of Albuquerque) is pretty conservative. It won't matter if Torrance is included as long as there's still enough Dems in that district.

    Somebody, please do something so that I don't have to deal with Steve Pearce anymore!!!

    •  Splitting Albuquerque won't happen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, NMLib

      There was an interesting map in 2001 which split ABQ in 3 pieces, but it failed to gain much support.  Northern NM pols like their extremely safe-D district, and they won't risk it.  If ABQ's population keeps expanding in proportion to the rest of the state, then any split is likely to be along the river, which helps us not at all.  Until the rural parts of southern NM oil patch shrivels up to nothing, or non-citizen hispanics get citizenship, a deeply conservative 2nd district is inevitable.  Keep trying, but keep Albuquerque intact.  And don't rely on Obama's 2008 numbers.  We're unlikely to see that kind of excellent organizing again any time soon.

      President Barack Hussein Obama!!

      by NM Ward Chair on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 05:22:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The irony is... (0+ / 0-)

        We can get along fine without splitting the city, but any effective Republican gerrymander absolutely requires them to split it.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 07:26:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You don't have to split ABQ or SF for a 3 D map (4+ / 0-)

        Blue: 59.1-40.9 Obama
        36.4 White, 39.4 Hispanic, 21.1 Native (all population)

        Green: 58.9-41.1 Obama
        46.8 White, 42.9 Hispanic (all population)

        Purple: 52.5-47.5 Obama
        56.6 Hispanic, 38.3 White (all population)

        NM-2 is definitely a tossup now, but Obama likely won it again in '12 (a 3.5 bump from the real district) Given that, it probably has a PVI around R+1. But the most important fact is that it would be rapidly trending in our direction because of growth in Las Cruces and Democratic trend and strength in Northern New Mexico.

        And you get this all without really sacrificing the other two districts (which are definitely safe for Democrats).

        NM-3 also happens to be a great opportunity for a Native American to win if Ben Ray Lujan retires.

        The voting populations are less Hispanic slightly, obviously, but I closed the tab and forgot to include them. Sorry.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 07:58:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nice, but I like this map a lot better: (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Schmitz, thetadelta

           photo NM3-0_zpsf68e785d.png

          1: 58.1% Obama 08, 52.4% Dem, 45.3% Hispanic, 44.5% White
          2: 56.1% Obama 08, 53.5% Dem, 47.6% Hispanic, 31.3% White, 18% Nat.Am.
          3: 56.5% Obama 08, 53.1% Dem, 46.1% Hispanic, 45.6% White

          Decent looking (when looking at counties), with three Hispanic-plurality (total pop) districts that almost assuredly will elect a Dem, and doesn't split the city.

          ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

          by GoUBears on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:53:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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