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View Diary: At 336,000, first-time unemployment benefit claims are holding at a new, lower plateau (30 comments)

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  •  Are you sure? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Klusterpuck

    GDP growth in the 4th Quarter was 0.1% (and could still be revised to negative).
       That's stall speed.

     Plus, several of our largest trading partners are in recession (Europe and Japan).

      It wouldn't take much to push us over the edge.

    ¡Cállate o despertarás la izquierda! - protest sign in Spain

    by gjohnsit on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:02:38 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, I am reasonably sure. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      Unemployment reduced to 7.7 last month with 200,000 plus new jobs.  

      It is good news.  And I do not expect a recession.

      Of course, like the Spanish Inquisition, no one expect s a recession.  :-)

      Look at the graph above re new unemployment.  It's been very good for several months.

      Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

      by TomP on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:08:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unemployment is a trailing indicator (0+ / 0-)

        You can't use it to predict the future.

        ¡Cállate o despertarás la izquierda! - protest sign in Spain

        by gjohnsit on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:10:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Talk to me in six months. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, virginislandsguy, TexasTom

          If we are in a recession, I'll say you're right.   I don't expect a recession.  $80B is a lot, but not that much in terms of lost demand.   All GDP predictions hover around 2 or 3%.  I'm not an economist, but I read people like Krugman and Stiglitz and Dean Baker at times, and I have not seen predictions of a recession.

          The future must be lived to know.  We'll see.

          Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

          by TomP on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:23:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Actually GDP was revised to 0.1% from negative in (0+ / 0-)

      previous estimates. So, I don't know if it would be typical for it to be revised again.

      I don't necessarily see another recession right away; just a long, slow, very intentional Republican war on the economy. Only breaking their majority in the House will stop this.

      Just doing my part to piss off right wing nuts, one smart ass comment at a time.

      by tekno2600 on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 09:32:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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