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View Diary: From Salt Lake to Moab: Winning Elections in Utah (52 comments)

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  •  Very interesting stuff (9+ / 0-)

    I'd love a future diary on some potential Utah Dems to watch for, like candidates who could win statewide.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 01:03:59 PM PDT

    •  Sure, but it'd be a short diary (12+ / 0-)

      There's really only two Democratic candidates that could compete statewide at this point; Jim Matheson and Ben McAdams. Matheson was actually polled against Governor Herbert by PPP last year, and he was head-to-head (or even 1% ahead in one case) with Herbert in the polling. Plus Matheson has represented most of the state's population over the years.

      McAdams is the real rising star though; he's a state senator from the most liberal district in Utah who won the County Mayor's seat in the year of Romneygeddon. He's only 38, and looking at how he managed to get most of the County's city mayors (most of whom are GOP or independent) to endorse him and a couple of the GOP legislators to do the same, it looks like he's got a bright future ahead of him, especially since he surpassed Matheson.

      I don't know about rising stars in the legislative races, but the Latino candidates who lost by 2-5% should be able to win if they try again. Celina Milner seems like the best bet for a truly "rising star" candidate if she can beat Johnny Anderson. If any Dem beats Dixon Pitcher (seriously that name is ridiculous), then they'd probably be another good rising star.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 01:36:40 PM PDT

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      •  I don't know if McAdam's outran (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, wasatch, jlms qkw

        Matheson in the portion of SLC that was in UT-02. Republicans were fairly clever and ruthless in packing a large portion of SLC into UT-02, but they did it by putting in most all the red areas, and lots of swingish purple areas, leaving out the urban liberal core and putting it over in a district fast trending red with lots of inelastic, crimson red suburban territory. It wasn't as effective as the pie plan proposed by some here, but it followed the concerns and desires of the UT GOP's power players, which included some who weren't comfortable mincing up SLC's congressional clout, and others who simply wanted Matheson to have a district where he would at least try to win reelection.

        Luckily, Matheson's SLC portion should trend slightly more Democratic to offset the fast growth and inelastically Republican nature of Utah county.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 03:53:32 PM PDT

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        •  Matheson's new district runs slightly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jlms qkw, talismanlangley

          more democratic . . . I wish Matheson would too... Ben McAdams is the real deal.

          •  No. Republicans made his district (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            high uintas, jlms qkw

            substantially more Republican after redistricting, and gave him a lot of new territory.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:46:20 PM PDT

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            •  Which district are you talking about? (2+ / 0-)
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              ArkDem14, jlms qkw

              UT-02 was changed to be a bit more GOP than the old one and the new UT-04 was a bit less GOP than the old UT-02, but was more suburban-centric.

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 09:05:42 PM PDT

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              •  I got the districts mixed up. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jlms qkw

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 08:46:20 AM PDT

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        •  Looking at the statistics (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jlms qkw

          Matheson got 109,599 or 48.84% of the UT-04 vote in Salt Lake County. McAdams got 54% overall in the entire county, which isn't as liberal as SLC.

          So I think it's fair to say that McAdams outperformed Matheson in Salt Lake County, but wouldn't outperform Matheson in Utah County.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 10:30:12 PM PDT

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          •  I don't get your math (0+ / 0-)

            Matheson won 53% of the vote in Salt Lake County, in a district that excluded the urban liberal core of the county and the bulk of Salt Lake City; what he got was most of the suburban and less Democratic urban territory of the county, and he still won 52.88% of the three party vote there, whereas McAdams got about 1% more in the entire county, which included a large chunk of highly liberal votes in the ubran core. He almost certainly didn't outperform Matheson in the sections of Salt Lake County in UT-04.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 11:31:53 PM PDT

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          •  I kind of see what you did (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jlms qkw

            http://electionresults.utah.gov/...

            Matheson won overall 108,725-105,269, but he won the SLC portion 98,914-83,268.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 11:34:10 PM PDT

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            •  Oh, my bad. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, jlms qkw

              I was using the overall percentage points, which looked like it was just counting SLC on the Excel sheet. I read it wrong. My bad.

              Though my point still stands, in that McAdams is at least as good a candidate as Matheson is, and for much cheaper than the Matheson-Love race was. I seem to recall the McAdams-Crockett race being less than a million dollars. So he'd save us cash and vote a little more progressive if nothing else.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 12:09:49 AM PDT

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              •  McAdams certainly did well (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jlms qkw, KingofSpades

                And it was an impressive win. A couple of successful terms as SLC mayor could give McAdams a good platform to run on statewide. Matheson is still stronger in SLC and much of rural Utah though.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 10:51:39 AM PDT

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                •  I'd like to see McAdams run for Governor in 2020 (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jlms qkw

                  To be honest. If he can improve on his popularity in a second mayoral term in 2016, I think he'll be nicely positioned for a gubernatorial run.

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 12:38:37 PM PDT

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