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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/28 (282 comments)

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  •  WI-1: Ryan to face primary challenge? (0+ / 0-)

    Only 52% of Republicans nationwide view Ryan in a favorable light. While I'm guessing that Ryan's favorables are higher with Republicans in his home district than elsewhere in the country, I'm starting to think that Ryan is more vulnerable in 2014 than he was two years ago, in fact, he may even face a primary challenge in his home district.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 07:18:44 AM PDT

    •  Ryan will win. (13+ / 0-)

      Maybe he won't win by his usual landslides anymore, but he will still win.

      Democrats have to get over our 'shiny object' problem. It's like Republicans thinking they had a chance to beat Shwartz in the old PA-13.

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 07:29:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Um, no. (5+ / 0-)

      There are too many things wrong with this post for me to dissect them all.

    •  Paul Ryan (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      will probably be held at or around 55% of the vote for the remainder of his Congressional career.  Thing is though while he'll lose some popularity, he probably has gained so many new donors that running against him would be even tougher.  

      The only way Democrats beat Paul Ryan barring the usual (scandal, etc.) is forcing him out.  Ryan will not run if he thinks he could be beaten, if anything, he'd resign and become a very, very, very, wealthy man on some lobbyist front.  

      Now, if he were to resign/retire, then it would be a likely more exciting race.

      #ConstructNotObstruct My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com

      by RVKU on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 08:32:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The GOP bench in that part of WI... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        ...is full of some undesirable people, to say the least...RNC Chairman Reince Priebus (no explanation necessary), State Assemblyman Robin Vos (one of the most corrupt politicians in the entire country), State Senator Mary Lazich (dishonest wingnut), etc.

        Also, Ryan resigning this term isn't completely out of the question. Apparently, some Republican strategists hinted at the possibility that Ryan might "pull a Palin" and resign mid-term if Ryan lost his VP bid but won re-election to Congress last year. Since Ryan lost his VP bid but won re-election to Congress, that's still a possibility, but I'm not holding my breath.

        Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 08:42:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A Robin Vos vs Cory Mason race (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn

          would be epic. I'm a bit worried about a funding disparity, though, as Vos has all sorts of institutional connections as assembly speaker, and most people outside of Wisconsin don't know just how awful Vos is.

        •  Re: Ryan Resigning (0+ / 0-)

          I know it's nothing but speculation but it would be rather interesting.  Ryan has been in Washington his whole adult life (and even though he is still a pretty young guy, it's almost what 20 years since he was an aide?) so he might be entrenched in its ways.

          Still, I'm curious can you link me to those stories?  I don't doubt you at all but curious what's being said about Ryan.

          #ConstructNotObstruct My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com

          by RVKU on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:00:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's where I heard about that (0+ / 0-)

            It's in this AP feature story about Ryan's future plans in the event that Ryan lost his VP bid (which he did):

            If Romney loses, Ryan will be seen as a leading White House contender in 2016. He will be a national party figure even without being a top member of the House leadership. That could breed resentment among current Republican leaders and perhaps splinter coalitions within the already fractured GOP alliances at the top of the House.

            A return also would make Ryan a leading target for Democrats. For the next few years, Democrats would lay traps in legislation, forcing him to take sides on measures that could come back to haunt him during a presidential bid.

            That is why some of Ryan's biggest boosters are considering whether it wouldn't be better for Ryan to resign from the House. He could write a book — "saving America" is a theme often bandied about — or teach at a university.

            The possibility of Ryan "pulling a Palin" isn't completely out of the question, but don't hold your breath.

            Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:25:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Resignation, probably not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          But if Republicans don't suspend their chairmanship term limits again for Ryan next year...

          And really, why wouldn't they? Ryan's a spent force. Even bipartisan-fetishists blasted his most recent budget plan. The GOP mostly ignored it. His reputation is in tatters. He still has a fan club, no doubt, but the best move politically would be to turn the page.

        •  All GOPers are undesirable people to me. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf

          nm

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 08:05:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Agree with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RVKU

        The force him out point. This obviously wouldn't happen for close to a decade, but if you want to go for the political jugular with Ryan it wouldn't be that difficult to basically gerrymander him out. His 1st district neighbors the 2nd and 4th district, two of the most Democratic districts in the country. You could easily give Ryan some of the 2nd and/or 4th district and those would still be double digit Democratic districts and the 1st would be a lean Dem district.

    •  One thing to keep in mind is succesful primaries (6+ / 0-)

      are very rare.

      Last summer I detailed every Congressman who lost his/her primary to a challenger since 1992. (After I finished it Cliff Stearns managed to slip through).  After the year of carnage that was 1992, the most incumbent House members to get primaried in a year was five in 2012, which was also a redistricting year.  2-4 losing per year is fairly typical, which isn't a whole lot.

      It's very hard to beat an incumbent without the help of redistricting and/or scandal.  Ideological problems can help doom a Congressman but I don't see that hurting Ryan in a hypothetical primary.  Outside of scandal, ideology, or redistricting, incumbents almost never get primaried.  Only three lost for another reason: Cynthia McKinney was embarrassing, David Davis (R-TN) was a weak freshman who won his first primary with 22%, and John Sullivan (R-)K) was seen as incredibly ineffective.   Even in the Great Tea Party Wave of 2010 only two incumbent GOPers were primaried: moderate Bob Inglis and party switcher Parker Griffith.

      Ryan just doesn't seem to fit the criteria to lose a primary.  Doesn't mean its impossible, but he doesn't look like an obvious target.  At the very least, we'll need to see a poll showing him with poor numbers that doesn't come from the House of Ras like the one The Week cited.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:08:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sullivan also is an alcoholic. (0+ / 0-)

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 07:57:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pigs will fly on Uranus first (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      markhanna

      It's actually kinda funny to consider all the electrons that are killed over one of the safest members of the House in a 60/40 or closer district in country.

      Ryan is in no danger from anyone.  There is absolute zero evidence to the contrary.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 12:36:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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