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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/28 (282 comments)

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  •  How do you know? .. (0+ / 0-)

    some people here were saying the same nonsense about Al Franken back in 2008 .. and we know how that turned out

    •  Because Franken (17+ / 0-)

      Was running in a presidential year in a state about 20 points more favorable to Democrats in a Democratic wave year  unmatched by any in the past 50 years and still only won by the skin of his teeth after a protracted recount that had him starting from behind.

      Judd would have been running in a state about 20 points more favorable to Republicans federally in a midterm with a Democratic President in a state that is trending away from us as a candidate who is on the wrong side of the issue which matters most to a large swath of ancestrally Democratic Kentucky voters: coal.

      It would be tantamount to us throwing away a huge opportunity in a cycle where we have very very few offensive Senate battles to pick (Georgia and perhaps Maine and Texas are the only others which are even remote possibilities, and all of them are just that: remote).

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 01:41:55 PM PDT

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      •  So bleepin' what? ... (0+ / 0-)

        that's not what people said then .. I was here then .. I remember why people were crapping their pants .. "Franken is a Hollywood liberal!!" .. "Franken comedic career might hurt him!!" .. he's never run for office before!! ... that's what people were saying then .. and re: coal .. you realize that cheap natural gas(re: fracking) is what's killing coal .. right?

        •  you're just being obtuse (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skibum59, DCCyclone

          He just explained why Franken is a poor comparison.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 03:04:17 PM PDT

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        •  So bleepin' what? ... (10+ / 0-)

          I don't care if what is really killing coal is natural gas (which I know firsthand, given I live and work with people involved in the Eagle Ford Shale). The people of Kentucky don't care, nor do they know in all likelihood.

          What they DO care about is protecting coal. And Ashley Judd doesn't want to protect coal, she wants to smother it to death with a pillow like a whacko mother to her newborn baby.

          And yes, Franken WAS a Hollywood liberal. And all of those things DID hurt him. They hurt him so much that instead of having what would have been a slam dunk race with any other high profile Minnesota DFLer - particularly someone from the Iron Range - into a barnburner where he actually started off behind on election day going into the months long recount process and legal proceedings. If Franken could only barely do it in Minnesota, then the much much much more liberal Judd is entirely, completely, radically unelectable in this state.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 03:11:27 PM PDT

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      •  So much hyperbole (0+ / 0-)

        2008 wasn't actually as big a wave year as 2006, or 1982, really.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:32:28 PM PDT

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        •  Well (0+ / 0-)

          I really view 06/08 as a single wave. And even if you're going to talk about the relative size of each of these:

          Democrats in the House received a higher aggregate percent in 2008 than 2008 by a percent. They may have picked up less seats that year, but keep in mind that most of the low hanging fruit was already picked. AND Republican percentage was higher by almost 2 percent in 2006 than in 2008.

          Democrats in the Senate picked up more seats in '08 than in '06 (and '82 - where there was no change). AND Obama became the first Democrat to win a majority of the vote since Carter as a black man winning in places that hadn't been won by a Democrat in decades. Here you really should ignore the aggregate vote, which is largely determined by which seats are up for election.

          And each of them was larger as a whole than 82, which had effectively no change in the Senate while having the House change in seats wedged between the two recent years - but they did have a higher aggregate vote percentage.

          '08, all around, was bigger than '06 and '82.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:54:04 PM PDT

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        •  Well let's see... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701

          Looking at the total house vote in each of those years, the spread was D+12 in 1982, D+10 in 1986, D+5 in 1992, D+8 in 2006, and D+10.5 in 2008. Obviously incumbency effects would have diminished the spread from 2006 relative to 2008, but I think they're relatively in the same ballpark any way you look at it.

      •  wwmiv right on all points, plus another thing..... (4+ / 0-)

        Franken moved home to Minnesota before the 2008 cycle, I think it was in the 2006 cycle, and he spent a marathon's amount of time helping state and local Democrats in any way he could.  All this was before he was talking to the DSCC or anyone else about running for office himself.  Yes everyone knew he had a challenge to Coleman on his mind, but he shelved that to help the state Dems for awhile first.

        And that, by the way, is exactly what Jon Corzine did in New Jersey for awhile before Corzine ran for U.S. Senate.

        It's about earning goodwill among the people whose support you need later.

        Judd really didn't do that.  She needed to move to Kentucky a long time ago and spend all her time helping state Dems in every way possible.  Then maybe some more goodwill would be there.  Of course all those other problems would still be there, so maybe not, and it wouldn't matter anyway.  But you have to earn some goodwill up front, and Judd did nothing to do that.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 08:14:16 PM PDT

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