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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/28 (282 comments)

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  •  Was Mitchell really that unpopular in 2010? (0+ / 0-)

    I assumed she performed so poorly was because of the national environment.

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:26:18 PM PDT

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    •  Yes, at least according to PPP (0+ / 0-)

      Their final poll in 2010 which found a 24/40/28 Mitchell/LePage/Cutler race a week out while Cutler was surging as Dems abandoned Mitchell in droves found a race with one pretty unpopular candidate, LePage at 42/51, and one horribly unpopular candidate, Mitchell at 31/56 (Mark Sanford numbers! lol) which is what you need for an independent to have any sort of opening, and unfortunately for Cutler who was at a relatively stellar 46/33 it just wasn't enough. Baldacci in that same poll was at an even more horrendous 29/58, but he's since recovered and was at 40/46 in their most recent poll.

      That's in very sharp contrast to Mike Michaud who sports a fantastic 58/23 and would end up winning in a cakewalk as all of those tactical Cutler '10 voters would come home. I'd imagine even Baldacci would be a modest favorite over LePage if his image kept improving or at least didn't become horrible again. Cutler isn't some titan, he was just in the right race at the right time in the wrong year. I really hope Michaud runs though as the race becomes Safe D, regardless of what polling says about Cutler a year and a half. All Michaud has to do is inform voters that a vote for Cutler is a vote to reelect LePage in that situation.

      •  But can you really isolate the favorability from (0+ / 0-)

        the national environment?

        I think that the these two issues are deeply intertwined. She was probably unpopular in part - perhaps not entirely - because she was a Democrat running in 2010.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:59:40 PM PDT

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        •  She was Senate President at the time (0+ / 0-)

          And maybe she was just tied to the unpopular Baldacci administration.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 10:34:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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