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View Diary: Bitcoin Bubble Bound to Burst (52 comments)

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  •  That's an absurd conspiracy based on (1+ / 0-)
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    Odysseus

    absolutely nothing other than your impression of Assange. There are plenty of other major holders of bit coins out there, you decided to single out Assange, probably because you don't know who those other holders are.

    It certainly looks like a bubble in those charts, but that could also be indicative of more people buying into the currency. The problem is that we don't really know what the flow of bit coins looks like, just the price fluctuation. How many are held, how many are actually regularly being moved around, how many are being created?

    If debt were a moral issue then, lacking morals, corporations could never be in debt.

    by AoT on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 02:04:38 PM PDT

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    •  It's not absurd at all (1+ / 0-)
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      shrike

      It's merely speculation, and I wrote a disclaimer by it specifically because I only have circumstantial evidence.

      Wikileaks is clearly a political target of the US, and Assange in particular. He's done a lot of high profile stuff regarding bitcoins and the Pirate Bay guys who got busted and fled to Asia have been involved in bitcoin -- there's a lot of "coincidences" going on, and I just wanted to put for the record my suspicion. Hey, if it turns out to be nothing, then it's nothing. If it turns out to be that I had a hunch that really meant something, then i've got it on the record.

      Note that the mention of Wikileaks and my suspicion takes up a single sentence, it's not the premise of this diary, so please don't focus too much on a tiny aspect of it.

      Deficits don't matter, jobs do.

      by aguadito on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 02:50:50 PM PDT

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      •  Not focusing on that issue (0+ / 0-)

        although I still think it's absurd. Do you have any response or thoughts about the lack of information I brought up? To my knowledge we don't know a whole lot about how bit coins move around and who exactly is holding them. Apparently a lot of people in Spain and Cyprus have been looking into them as a fall back currency. I'm sure there will be a bubble at some point, but given that that there are a restricted number of bit coins out there one would expect it to go up in value compared to the dollar. The number of people using it is increasing and the supply isn't increasing.

        If debt were a moral issue then, lacking morals, corporations could never be in debt.

        by AoT on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 03:26:57 PM PDT

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        •  There are numerous (0+ / 0-)

          alternatives to bitcoin.

          Are you saying we can all just buy up any and all variations of cryptocurrencies and be assured ever-increasing value?

          I guess we can all just create cryptocurrencies, get a few indie shops to accept them, have wikileaks and 4chan accept donations in bitcoin, and then create hundreds of millions of dollars out of thin air.

          Seems legit.

          Deficits don't matter, jobs do.

          by aguadito on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 03:44:54 PM PDT

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          •  That's not what I said at all (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus

            First, there are going to be markets to short bit coins on now, campBX is going to start supporting it.

            Second, it is entirely possible that there is a bubble, or will be, but it's also possible that $100 may be a sustainable level for bit coins, we simply don't know. I was pointing out potential explanations for the sudden rise in cost.

            Are you saying we can all just buy up any and all variations of cryptocurrencies and be assured ever-increasing value?
            No, I'm saying that the rise in value might be the function of reasonable market forces and an influx of demand for bit coins. I notice that you didn't actually address anything I said. There may be alternatives, but they aren't as well known or as popular, although the current rise in price may reduce demand for bit coins among a number of people, I certainly have no use for them at these high prices, so maybe other currencies will gain value.

            If debt were a moral issue then, lacking morals, corporations could never be in debt.

            by AoT on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:07:23 PM PDT

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            •  Might be a function of reasonable market forces (0+ / 0-)

              yet you can't name a single reasonable market force that would lead to these kinds of bitcoin prices.

              listen, this is a cryptocurrency with nothing backing it but black market trade and some low-demand stores.

              they created it out of nothing, and now at current prices there's over $1 billion worth of the stuff.

              in financial analysis you're supposed to produce a viable model for valuation or at least a viable "story".

              and you think just because there's a finite number of bitcoins that its price will go up, it doesn't even make a lick of sense.

              you can replicate the bitcoin concept a million times over to create a finite currency created allowing anonymous payment systems.

              there's no reason for this price to be so high. if you have a case to make, go ahead.

              it's funny actually to see how bitcoin/wikileaks/etc create interesting bed fellows.

              Deficits don't matter, jobs do.

              by aguadito on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:22:31 PM PDT

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              •  I did name one (0+ / 0-)

                The increasing demand for it in Europe and especially Spain. Why does that not count? More people buying into the currency means it goes up in value. There's no reason it couldn't be a new universal method of money laundering.

                you can replicate the bitcoin concept a million times over to create a finite currency created allowing anonymous payment systems.
                And it wouldn't be bit coins. The shared use of it is part of the value of the currency, or at least part of the reason to use bit coin instead of some alternative currency.

                If debt were a moral issue then, lacking morals, corporations could never be in debt.

                by AoT on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:28:33 PM PDT

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                •  There is no "increasing demand" for it in Europe (0+ / 0-)

                  Just because people are searching for it from different countries, doesn't necessarily mean demand is spiking up.

                  There's been a media BLITZ promoting the bitcoin bubble. That has more to do with any searches than anything.

                  Deficits don't matter, jobs do.

                  by aguadito on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:31:03 PM PDT

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                  •  Are there numbers about how many people (0+ / 0-)

                    are using it? There's no argument to be made with out those sort of numbers.

                    And honestly, as a currency, bit coin will be very poorly off if this isn't a bubble and it's a permanent rise. Not a whole lot of people want to use a currency that keeps appreciating like this one is. That could be what leads to a crash.

                    There's been a media BLITZ promoting the bitcoin bubble. That has more to do with any searches than anything.
                    I hadn't seen anything about a media blitz. You seem to have a lot of paranoia about bit coin, why do you think it's so evil?

                    If debt were a moral issue then, lacking morals, corporations could never be in debt.

                    by AoT on Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 04:50:37 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

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