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View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

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  •  My impression is (0+ / 0-)

    that the broad picture analyses drawn by the major pundits tend to discount local variations in definition of what an acceptable representative for their district is for each Party.

    There are always incumbents who have gotten out of the safe envelope for their Party in their district.   In some cases a key part of their base has melted down rather abruptly and they haven't clued in.  In other cases it's corruption, or issue stances, or having p.o.'d the local political establishment a few times too many.  Sometimes it's being to nuts for the district, other times not enough so.

    There's also simply getting out of step with their national party, which soon translates to disconnect with their base voters as they shift.  

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