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View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

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  •  As a non-statistical scientist it occurs to me (0+ / 0-)

    that what the scientists and experts do is great, important.
    I think you all should continue to make sense of the situation.

    However, for the rest of us, I think we need to go with the idea that we must take back the House (because progress and even the survival of civilization depend on it) and because we must, we will.

    So we need the guidance of the pollsters, experts, scientists, experienced, wise consultants  to help us figure out the best path forward to take the win.

    Using history in a "self-defeating prophecy" to pre-design our defeat is a real danger.
    I remember how Charlie Cook had such a high profile and how he helped bake the narrative in the 2010 election.

    We need to win, we need to change the computer models, we need to dominate and rewrite the narrative and we need to put the gop in a terminal state of shock in 2014.
    If that means selling a few moderate Dems as being a little more conservative than they really are, so be it.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 02:37:25 PM PDT

    •  But why? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      Do you think we need to shove Andrew Hounshell out of the Oh-08 race and recruit a cautious, triangulating Blue Dog instead? This district is brutally Republican and has been made more so in the recent appalling gerrymander. Having someone like Hounshell who supports unions, marriage equality, women's rights and so on would be an enormous liability if what you say is true, even though he's young, attractive, energetic, a blue-collar native of the district and already out there getting himself known and raising money 20 months before the election.

      Is our problem here in Ohio that our candidates in Republican districts have largely been too progressive on hot-button issues, and we need to recruit some candidates that won't excite anyone but won't offend anyone either?

      Jon Husted is a dick.

      by anastasia p on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 04:53:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oops, gotta add that Oh-08 is Boehnhead's (0+ / 0-)

        district. Sorry.

        Jon Husted is a dick.

        by anastasia p on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 04:54:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No. I don't think that if you've got a sincere (0+ / 0-)

        candidate who is running hard, you should knee-cap him. However, we have lots of districts where we have no Dems running or running hard with good support.
        I'm thinking of V. Foxx's, or L. Gohmert's district, and the like.

        I think we need to take every district and every state and every candidate on their own terms. That's where the analysis and insight come in.
        And even in a district where we have a great young progressive running against one of the entrenched leaders of the House, we should run to win. We have to ignore the negative probabilities and try to win by persuasion and the rightness of our positions.

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 06:51:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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