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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Good Friday Edition (309 comments)

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  •  Yeah I'd love to have accurate precinct data here (0+ / 0-)

    but they split a ridiculous amount of precincts, some of which were very large, so who knows. Let's say that one probably falls in my 10% error range. O'Malley definitely won it in 2010 though, no doubt.

    •  It's even more difficult (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      to get fully accurate precinct data for MD in light of the fact that the early vote hasn't as of yet been factored into the precinct totals, but rather was tabulated separately with each early voting location serving as its own sort of super-precinct.   Early voters can cast ballots at any assigned early voting location in their county regardless of what congressional or legislative district it or they are located in.

      When figuring out the presidential election totals by district, DKE had to guesstimate for counties split among congressional districts (which is to say most voters in the state) and split up the early vote by each district's proportion of the county; for example about half of the Montgomery County early votes were assigned to the 8th district, a third to the 6th, and the rest to the 3rd.  Frederick County was split about evenly between 6 and 8, and Prince George's with about 62% of its vote in the 4th and the rest in the 5th. That's about as accurate an estimate as anyone's come up with so far.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 10:33:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm fairly sure Sobhani (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        mostly took Bongino voters.  Cardin got 55%, and I think that's within a few points of what he would have gotten in a two man race, whereas Bongino significantly underperformed a typical Republican in the state.  Cardin won all the counties I would expect him to, plus he actually won a few typically red Eastern Shore counties with around 43% of the vote (close to what I would expect him to get), while the other two split the non-Cardin vote.  

        As regards the early voting, I would expect that the Frederick County early votes for the 6th would skew more Democratic than those for the 8th, since Frederick city was left in the 6th while much of the rest of the county was moved to the 8th, and Frederick is much more Democratic than the rest of it, particularly the northern part of the county.  

        •  What was Sobhani's politics anyway (0+ / 0-)

          he did very well as an indie.

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 09:16:38 AM PDT

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          •  He and Bongino spent roughly $10 million combined (0+ / 0-)

            to Cardin's $7 million. Over 80% of that $10 million was from Sobhani, which is why he did so well I would imagine.

            •  But did Sobhani run as a liberal, conservative.... (0+ / 0-)

              moderate, third way, anti-machine?

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 03:03:50 PM PDT

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              •  Basically as a third way moderate (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                from what I can tell, given his lack of specifics on issues.  He seemed to be arguing for more domestic spending (especially locally), a rather hawkish foreign policy, and probably as a moderate to liberal on cultural issues which he said almost nothing about.  If this doesn't fit neatly into any pattern, that was probably the whole point as his slogan was "Declare Your Independence", a jab at both parties and their ideologies.  

                Without Sobhani on the ballot Cardin's 55% probably would have gone to at least 59 or 60% (and that's if you allocate his vote to Bongino by a 3-1 margin, which is probably way too generous to the GOP nominee), which is enough to carry 7 of the 8 CD's (losing only the 1st).

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 04:06:59 PM PDT

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              •  He's a former Republican (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                who lost two Republican Senate primaries a long time ago (one to Alan Keyes) but his positions wouldn't take him far in the party today.  He wrote a book about immigration reform (he's in favor of it) but he didn't really campaign on that.  

        •  Cardin would've outperformed Obama (0+ / 0-)

          Every other incumbent Dem did.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 12:41:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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