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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Good Friday Edition (309 comments)

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  •  I'm fairly sure Sobhani (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    mostly took Bongino voters.  Cardin got 55%, and I think that's within a few points of what he would have gotten in a two man race, whereas Bongino significantly underperformed a typical Republican in the state.  Cardin won all the counties I would expect him to, plus he actually won a few typically red Eastern Shore counties with around 43% of the vote (close to what I would expect him to get), while the other two split the non-Cardin vote.  

    As regards the early voting, I would expect that the Frederick County early votes for the 6th would skew more Democratic than those for the 8th, since Frederick city was left in the 6th while much of the rest of the county was moved to the 8th, and Frederick is much more Democratic than the rest of it, particularly the northern part of the county.  

    •  What was Sobhani's politics anyway (0+ / 0-)

      he did very well as an indie.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 09:16:38 AM PDT

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      •  He and Bongino spent roughly $10 million combined (0+ / 0-)

        to Cardin's $7 million. Over 80% of that $10 million was from Sobhani, which is why he did so well I would imagine.

        •  But did Sobhani run as a liberal, conservative.... (0+ / 0-)

          moderate, third way, anti-machine?

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 03:03:50 PM PDT

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          •  Basically as a third way moderate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            from what I can tell, given his lack of specifics on issues.  He seemed to be arguing for more domestic spending (especially locally), a rather hawkish foreign policy, and probably as a moderate to liberal on cultural issues which he said almost nothing about.  If this doesn't fit neatly into any pattern, that was probably the whole point as his slogan was "Declare Your Independence", a jab at both parties and their ideologies.  

            Without Sobhani on the ballot Cardin's 55% probably would have gone to at least 59 or 60% (and that's if you allocate his vote to Bongino by a 3-1 margin, which is probably way too generous to the GOP nominee), which is enough to carry 7 of the 8 CD's (losing only the 1st).

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 04:06:59 PM PDT

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          •  He's a former Republican (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, KingofSpades

            who lost two Republican Senate primaries a long time ago (one to Alan Keyes) but his positions wouldn't take him far in the party today.  He wrote a book about immigration reform (he's in favor of it) but he didn't really campaign on that.  

    •  Cardin would've outperformed Obama (0+ / 0-)

      Every other incumbent Dem did.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sat Mar 30, 2013 at 12:41:18 PM PDT

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