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View Diary: Utilities on Solar & Distributed Power "€œIt's a potential threat to us over the long term" (307 comments)

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  •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

    This boom is driven by falling prices caused by over supply.  Manufacturers are undergoing contraction with several big ones going under.   The oversupply looks to correct itself in another couple of years, in which point the residential rate is not likely to continue at quite such a pace.  

    Most of that doubling you've seen is from utility scale solar which is rushing to break ground before the ARRA tax credits expire.

    I think solar is here to stay and will continue to grow, but when a boom is the result of factors we know are temporary, it would seem unwise to predict that a two year trend will continue indefinitely.  

    However, even if we see 70% annual increases, or even doubling, it take a while to get from 82,000 homes to say 65 million homes (half the US stock)

    I agree it will be important, but it won't kill utilities within five years or even ten

    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

    by Mindful Nature on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:21:30 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  12 years using your numbers. (0+ / 0-)

      82,000 12 years, 76% CAGR, is 70,million houses.

      now, if the utilities and the big commercial players are installing, then we will see really fast adoption.

      Walmart doesn't install this because it's PR, they install it because it's a big driver on their business model.

      It's really stopping to be newsworth when companies install PV,
      at which point it's just like a new boiler.

      I suspect the whole thing will just keep accelerating.

      •  And the drivers of current trends (0+ / 0-)

        We just ignore what is driving an unusual two year period, ignore everything else and extrapolate wildly?  Pardon me if I find that pretty in compelling reasoning.

        Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

        by Mindful Nature on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:26:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  if you have trouble with simple arithmetic (0+ / 0-)

          i'm not surprised you have issues with complex geometric growth.

          The nice thing is it's happening no matter how you feel about it.  Look at Germany,  huge growth of renewables, they are the signal market.  Big rich society, rapidly converting.

          They have lousy sun too.

          Australia is close behind.

          •  last one (0+ / 0-)

            I'm about ready to start HRing you for your persistent insults to someone who clearly has a stronger grasp of both the facts and math than you do.

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 07:35:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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