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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2 (299 comments)

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  •  56!? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, lordpet8, betelgeux

    I'd love it if it were true but it seems like way to high. PPP had her at 47% which "feels" more right.

    •  PPP is not so sacrosanct (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, aamail6, bythesea

      The MoE on this poll is ~ +-4%.

      So the truth, with 95 percent confidence, could be anywhere between 52% and 60%.

      The MoE on a typical PPP poll is usually, depending on their sample size, somewhere between 3.5% and 4.5%. In other words, the truth could be anywhere between 43% and 52% for them.

      Further in other words: the truth is probably around 51-52%, which is halfway between the two polls. Neither 47% nor 56% seems like an actual outlier. They both seem pretty realistic.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 07:05:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My previous comment (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, bythesea, ArkDem14

        I meant "astounding" more in the "good" sense, not the "out of reality" sense. It's certainly on the upper boundary of possible, but it isn't so ridiculous as to immediately qualify as an outlier - and the fact that PPP has shown her approval (which is a difficult metric to really get at given voters' pretty poor understandings of their elected officials outside of partisan cues) to be at a statistically pretty similar level, I'm inclined to believe it (and this isn't even taking into account the possibility that her approval has increase over the interval between the two polls or taking into account question wording effects and other polling firm house effects that can make tangible differences).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 07:10:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  PPP consistently (0+ / 0-)

      finds Landrieu's approval rating much lower than anyone else.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 11:05:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PPP consistently find approval (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, aamail6, jncca, BeloitDem, nimh

        For nearly everybody lower than anyone else.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 11:15:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good point (0+ / 0-)

          And that is somewhat problematic. They also tend to find samples with a higher level of political awareness, but these same factors mean their polls are very accurate in terms of representing a race's outcome.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 11:35:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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