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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/3 (240 comments)

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  •  Koch brothers money descends on Minnesota (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, aamail6, ArkDem14

    I am surprised that they are going after Nelson, as she is generally conservative, and is one of the 2 or 3 beat DFL targets in the Senate, but she isn't up for reelection until 2016. Republicans have been bitter with Erhardt for a few years now. As he was a long-time Republican state representative, but left then party in a the-party-left-me kind of way. Edina seems to be a specific target for some reason, perhaps because it is the home of soon-to-be-party-chairman Keith Downey. Edina used to be a hard right rich suburb, and is now a center-left rich suburb.

    http://www.minnpost.com/...

    •  An excuse for me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kleinburger

      to re-post this chart I made of the MN Senate districts by Obama percentage (x-axis), Yes on 1 percentage (y-axis), and winner margin of victory (size of the circle):

       photo MNSenatefw_zps5e394bbf.png

      I'll let it get cut off to focus on the marginal seats.  Carla Nelson is in District 26, one of the two overlapping, large red circles that went relatively narrowly for Amendment 1 and for Obama.  I assume Districts 14, 48, and 28 are also targeted?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 10:28:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Carla Nelson (0+ / 0-)

        She had a surprisingly easy reelection bid. She represents half of the Rochester metro area, including half the city. Rochester is one of the few areas in the state that actually has a very definitive trajectory, and its heading our direction as Mayo Clinic continues to expand and draw more post graduate level workforce.

        As for the three other districts you mentioned, the answers are  maybe, no, and no.

         District 14 is home to John Pederson, who was elected to replace Tarryl Clark when she did not run for reelection in 2010 to take on Bachmann. Pederson is vulnerable but it'll take a special candidate, and I can't think of any off of the top of my head that are that special.

        District 48 belongs to young Jeremy Miller. Miller is a young energetic likable guy that campaigns his ass off. The district is Winona-centric, and his dad was a long time very popular mayor there. Unless Miller moves in on F** up, the seat is his for a long time, as I don't think he is even 30 yet.

        District 28 belongs to Senate Majority Leader David Hann. This is Eden Prairie, which is one of the richest suburbs in the upper Midwest. It may be socially moderate, but is still relfexively Republican when it comes to candidates, even if Amendment 1 failed there. Eden Prairie is also the home base of one Erik Paulsen, FWIW.

        •  I think you switched 28 and 48. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          It looks to me like 48 voted for Obama, although I made these charts a while ago.  Amendment 1 did far worse there, as apparently is the pattern for these kinds of suburbs.

          David Hann only won narrowly in 2012.  I made this chart a while ago, and I'm wondering how his circle ended up that big.  

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 11:09:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I did switch the numbers, sorry (0+ / 0-)

            28 = Miller/ Winona. And 48 = Hann/ Eden Prairie. The descriptions are accurate though.

            And district 28 is a prime example of why Democrats will not win MN-3 while Paulsen is there. Obama carried the district, but Hann (R) won, Loon (R) won, and Paulsen (R) cleaned up there.

            As for your circle, it is way too big, so there must be a bug in the input there.

            •  I have no idea why. (0+ / 0-)

              I don't notice any other mistakes.  Sigh.  Always end up having to re-do my charts.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 11:33:34 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Edina is in District 49 (0+ / 0-)

      which stands out for voting relatively narrowly for Obama while voting against Amendment 1 by a wide margin.  

      In fact, Edina is nearly coterminous with House District 49A, which stands out along those lines even more:

       photo MNHousefw_zps12364d63.png

      That makes sense based on your description of it.  Probably a more "socially liberal" town than a generally liberal one.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 10:38:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not really a "town" (0+ / 0-)

        It is a first ring suburb of Minneapolis in South-Central Hennepin County.

         Incidentally, it is home to the first ever indoor shopping mall, Southdale.

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